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Georgian president's negotiations with opposition to be fruitless: experts

Politics Materials 13 May 2009 09:40 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, May 13 / Trend , E.Tariverdiyeva/

The Georgian opposition's confusion during the negotiations with President Mikheil Saakashvili turned into the government's advantage over the rivals, and this meeting will not seriously influence on a political situation in the country.

"I doubt that this situation will generate a real political crisis in Georgia," American Expert on Georgia Henry Hale said. "The whole set of events surrounding the mutiny seems rather strange, and Saakashvili appears to be turning it to his advantage."

President Saakashvili met with the opposition at the Interior Ministry's building on May 11. The head of state was satisfied that the dialogue with the representatives of radical and parliamentary opposition leaders took place.

"Anyway, this is the day of the victory of the Georgian democracy," he said. "I am glad we could take a positive step after several strict and critical statements, including insults. I have one position - I urge to a dialogue, open civilized dialogue."

Assessment of situation by the Georgian president and radical opposition differs on many issues and we could not reach an agreement at the meeting, one of opposition leaders Levan Gachechiladze said at the end of the meeting.

"He believes everything is in order in the country, while we believe in contrary of it," Gachechiladze said on behalf of the radical oppositionists who attended the meeting.

Leader of the Way of Georgia Salome Zurabishvili said there was a "confused conversation and not a serious new thing" at the meeting with the president.

She believes Saakashvili lives in his virtual world and it is testified with the fact that he held a meeting with the opposition leaders at a new building of the Interior Ministry.

It has been a month that the Georgian opposition is striving for Saakashvili's resignation. The opposition held the first demonstration on April 9. They organized demonstrations at streets of Tbilisi within a month and the Georgian Interior Ministry announced about a military revolt at one of tank units near Tbilisi on May 5.

Experts believe the opposition's meeting with the president and possible dialogues with the government will not lead to considerable changes in a crisis situation in the country, because Saakashvili enjoys considerable trust of people.

"If opposition leaders refuse from their key demand - the president's resignation, they will lose the protestors' trust, otherwise it will difficult for them to achieve a real result in the meeting with the president," Independent Georgian Political Scientist Ramaz Sakvarelidze told Trend .

The expert doubts that a result of the first meeting will be fruitful. Sakvarelidze said one meeting will not melt the ice existing between the two conflict sides.

"Opposition will not allow losing the society's trust by refusing from a key demand," the expert said. "And I have doubt whether the president will agree to resign."

Another Georgian Expert Giya Khukhashvili believes the crisis for the country's authorities is the only loss of power.

The opposition worries about the current governmental crisis in the country, but the government thinks of only one thins - how to keep the power, he said.

"A concrete result from the meeting between the president and opposition leaders was not expected," Khukhashvili told Trend .

The American expert believes that the opposition has many problems to achieve changes in the country's political course.

The main problem for the extraparliamentary opposition is that Saakashvili remains fairly popular in Georgia, especially outside of Tbilisi, and partly for this reason this opposition has not been able to muster massive protests for very long, Hale believes.

"In this situation, Saakashvili sees little reason to resign, and the elites around him see little reason to abandon him," Associate Professor of Political Science at George Washington University Hale told Trend .

Thus, Saakashvili is likely to remain in power, the expert believes. Hale said The opposition does not want to show weakness by giving in, so it will likely be looking for some kind of face-saving way to end the demonstration.

However, it is necessary to continue a dialogue between the government and opposition which did not cause any new thing, observers believe.

"While Saakashvili wants to demonstrate the opposition's weakness, he also has some interest in clearing the streets of the protesters and in presenting himself as someone who can talk with all forces in Georgia," Hale said.

Sakvarelidze believes to continue the dialogue between the president and opposition will be the most rational decision.

He said it was a "familiarization meeting" which should be followed with a next round.

"Although the president did not change his position after the meeting, to continue the dialogue will be the most rational solution which can bring concrete results. It is also good that the president came to the meeting not with pre-written version," the expert said.

Independent Georgian Political Scientist Soso Tzintzadze assessed the meeting between the Georgian president and opposition leaders as positive. This was the first round of negotiations which will be resumed after a definite pause, he believes.

"There will be confidential contacts before it to be better prepared for the meeting," Tzintzinadze told Trend .

N.Kirtzkhalia (Tbilisi) contributed to this article.

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