Parliamentary Budget Office of Georgia makes forecast on main economy indicators

Business Materials 10 October 2021 21:34 (UTC +04:00)
Parliamentary Budget Office of Georgia makes forecast on main economy indicators

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.10

By Tamilla Mammadova – Trend:

Georgia's real GDP growth in 3Q2021 will be positive and reach 8.7 percent, the Parliamentary Budget Office of Georgia (PBO) told Trend.

"The forecasted GDP level is 2.7 percent higher than the corresponding figure of 3Q2019. The expected GDP growth is due to the improved economic situation and the base effect of a high drop experienced in 3Q2020 caused by the COVID-19," said the source.

"Although the growth rate is lower, compared to the second quarter of 2021, due to a different base effect and, also the worsened COVID-19 pandemic state in 3Q2021," PBO said.

As the source added, along with the vaccination process and various types of restrictions, revived external trade is also significant. This forecast is based on the assumptions, that compare to the third quarter of 2020.

According to the PBO:

-The number of tourists coming to the country will increase by almost 5.5 times (almost 3.6 times less than in 3Q2019), at the same time, the number of Georgian tourists abroad will increase insignificantly.

- Domestic tourism activity will also be maintained, along with a significant increase in tourism export.

- Private, as well as government consumption, will increase.

- Private investments will increase, which together with consumption will determine this positive pace of economic activity mentioned above.

"In parallel with the sharp increase in trade of services, a significant increase in trade of goods is also expected," added the PBO.

The source added, that along with increased consumption and investment, the amount of imports of goods is expected to increase significantly. Due to the recovery of the global economy, the demand for exports is expected to increase and, consequently, the volume of good exports will increase.

"As a result of quantifying these assumptions, it is expected, that export will increase more than import, and net export will contribute a positive 2.6 percentage point share in the economic activity, while domestic absorption (sum of consumption and investment) will increase significantly and determine GDP growth rate by 6.1 percentage points," said the PBO.


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