Ukraine's gas races

Ukraine's gas races

Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 14 / Trend , A.Badalova/

During a two-day official visit to Ashgabat, which has begun today, Ukrainian President, Victor Yushchenko is discussing with his counterpart the resumption of direct deliveries of gas from Turkmenistan to Ukraine, which were halted in 2003 due to Gazprom's becoming re-exporter of the Turkmen gas.

Earlier, Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkmenistan Viktor Maiko said that the volume of the Turkmen gas supply to Ukraine may reach 10-15 billion cubic meters.

According to the western analysts, the Ukrainian president's visit is an illustrative purpose and part of his pre-election campaign.

"Ukrainian president's visit to Turkmenistan is predominately driven by Mr Yushchenko's political competition with Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko before the January 2010," Expert on the Energy Research at the Oxford University, Shamil Yenikeyeff wrote to Trend in an email.

In early September Timoshenko reached an agreement with her Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on the future of Russian-Ukrainian gas relations. This involves the reduction of Russian gas sales to Ukraine due to the shrinking domestic demand which could save Kiev from paying hefty fines to Moscow.

Naturally, if Timoshenko avoids any gas disputes with Russia before the presidential elections scheduled for 17 January 2010, Victor Yushchenko could lose his post. Yushchenko now needs a boost to his political standing with the electorate and sees a potential gas deal with Turkmenistan as a counterweight to the Timoshenko-Putin gas deal.

From a logistical point of view, it would be impossible for Ukraine to buy Central Asian gas without some degree of Russian involvement, Yenikeyeff said. At the moment, all Central Asian gas exports run through the Russian territory.

"In the foreseeable future, Central Asian gas will also be exported to China via the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline which is currently being constructed," Yenikeyeff said.

In the past, Russia bought Central Asian gas under the DAF conditions at the border of the particular Central Asian supplier (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan).

At the moment, Yenikeyeef believes, Ukraine can only secure Central Asian gas deliveries via Russia despite all the political rhetoric about "the direct supplies of Turkmen gas to Ukraine".

If Russia agrees with the direct Turkmenistan-Ukraine gas trade, then this will be another matter, Yenikeyeff said.

"However, even in this case, Ukraine and Turkmenistan will be required to negotiate transit fees and a new transit agreement with Russia," he added.

The expert believes in the next few months Russian-Ukrainian gas relations will be driven by domestic political processes in Ukraine before and immediately after the presidential elections.

"If the newly elected Ukrainian president consolidates power at home relatively quickly, and manages to prevent political squabbles within the domestic political establishment, relations with Russia could stabilise. At the same time, potential political instability in Ukraine is likely to lead to new gas disputes with Russia," Yenikeyeff believes.

There is a domestic political agenda to Victor Yushchenko's visit - to demonstrate he has a plan to establish alternative gas supply to Ukraine and reduce dependence on Russian, believes Andrew Reed, the American Analyst of Energy Security Analysis.

"The gas issue and relations with Russia are at the center of the presidential election campaign," Reed wrote to Trend in an email. "Yushchenko is taking an anti-Russian position, while Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko is positioning herself as capable of finding a common language with Russia."

Reed believes, Yushchenko's approval ratings and chances of re-election, however, are quite low.

"Russia. So it is unlikely that foreign partners will see much potential in his initiatives in the gas sphere," Reed said.

Just the day before Yushchenko's visit to Ashgabat, the President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev met with his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. The sides agreed to resume the Turkmen gas deliveries to Russia. The Turkmen president said all issues related to the resumption of the Turkmen gas supplies to Gazprom were solved.

In April, after the accident on the Central-Asia-Center-4 gas pipeline, Turkmenistan halted gas sale to Russia.

Reed believes Russian control of Central Asian gas will weaken over time, but it is unlikely Ukraine can significantly influence this process.

"Ukraine's geopolitical position and infrastructure make it an attractive transit partner for gas delivery to Europe, but political and socioeconomic instability make Ukraine a risky partner," Reed said.

Do you have any feedback? Contact our journalist at: [email protected]

Weekly actual topics in Azerbaijan (April 16-20)
Weekly actual topics in Azerbaijan (April 16-20)
Weekly tenders in the region (April 16-20)
Weekly tenders in the region (April 16-20)
Last week’s laws, orders and decrees in Azerbaijan (April 16-20)
Last week’s laws, orders and decrees in Azerbaijan (April 16-20)
Loading Bars
Latest
Those who ordered missile strikes on Ganja are responsible for war crimes - top official
Glad to see that Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is over - Hungarian official
Khazar Consortium in Turkmenistan opens tender for plumbing materials purchase
Azerbaijan showed great heroism during Karabakh war - Turkish Presidential Administration rep (Exclusive) (VIDEO)
Iran - one of radioactive drugs exporters
Turkey names 2M2021 volume of cargo shipment via local ports from Ukraine
Visit of Turkic Council’s delegation to Azerbaijan’s Ganja city starts (PHOTO)
Goal of Turkic Council’s delegation's visit to Aghdam was to see Armenian savagery - Assistant to president
Azerbaijan's Aghdam - clear example of urbicide, says top official (PHOTO)
UAE selects first Arab woman for astronaut training
Azerbaijan moving to new stage of its development – Uzbek Information and Mass Communications Agency rep
Turkmenistan Railways opens tender for purchase of material, technical resources
Cargo movements in Iran’s Bushehr port grow
Kazakhstan’s Vagonservice company opens tender to buy oil filters
Situation in Azerbaijan’s Aghdam district - unprecedented barbarism - Turkish Presidential Administration rep (VIDEO)
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for April 11
Indonesia's 6.1-magnitude quake leaves 8 deaths
Delegation of Turkic Council reviews building of Aghdam Drama Theater destroyed by Armenians (PHOTO)
Azerbaijani Finance Ministry to auction mid-term government bonds
Russia reports over 8,700 daily COVID-19 cases
Turkmen company exports batch of formwork sheets to Turkey
Delegation of Turkic Council visits Azerbaijan’s Aghdam Juma Mosque (PHOTO/VIDEO)
Delegation of Turkic Council visits Imarat cemetery destroyed by Armenians (PHOTO/VIDEO)
President Ilham Aliyev plays very important consolidating role in Turkic Council - SecGen (EXCLUSIVE)
Buy/sell operations at Iran Mercantile Exchange disclosed
Georgia reports 707 coronavirus cases, 592 recoveries, 8 deaths
Uzbekistan, Turkey strengthen trade, economic co-op
Visit of Turkic Council's delegation to liberated Aghdam starts (PHOTO)
Weekly review of Azerbaijani precious metals market
8 rescued, 21 trapped in coal mine accident in Xinjiang
Iran discloses details of exports from industrial parks of Semnan Province
Accident reported at Iran's nuclear facility
Copper ores and concentrates rank first in list of Georgian export
Azerbaijani MoD shows footage from Fuzuli's Ashaghi Rafadinli village (VIDEO)
President of Kyrgyzstan casts vote in local council elections, referendum
India records over 150,000 daily COVID-19 cases, tally at 13,358,805
Saudi-led coalition intercepts Houthi drone
Turkmenistan signs decree on rice production
Number of enterprises put into operation in Iran's Gilan Province revealed
Azerbaijani Gadabay's Executive Office to engage landscaping services via tender
Turkish Airlines to put its 737 Max jets back in the air next week
Kazakh COVID-19 vaccine to be bottled in Turkey
Submarine cable to connect electrical networks of Georgia, Europe to be additional direct channel for telecommunication traffic
IMF, World Bank urged to contain pandemic with fair, efficient distribution of vaccines
South Korean battery makers agree last-minute deal in boost to Biden's EV policy
Egypt, Sudan reject Ethiopian proposal for data sharing on Renaissance dam
Bezos, Musk top Forbes' record-setting billionaire list
Turkey registers more than 52 600 new coronavirus cases
China-Brunei trade grows by over 70 pct in 2020
Argentina's economy minister heads to Europe to woo finance officials over debts
US boosts imports of Turkish-made clothes
Turkey sends off 2nd boron export train to China
First kidney transplant performed in Turkmenistan
Bahar Azadi gold coin price continues to fall in Iran
Iran unveils data of gasoline and petrochemicals exports
New transmission line to provide opportunities for both Georgia’s and EU energy network - expert
Weekly review of key events in Azerbaijan's transport sector
China fines Alibaba record $2.75 billion for anti-monopoly violations
Italy reports 344 coronavirus deaths on Saturday, 17,567 new cases
Azercell’s “Kabinetim” mobile app exceeded 1 million downloads
Pakistani FM to visit Tehran
Funeral for UK's Prince Philip to be held on April 17
Pinterest becomes latest platform to appoint Turkey representative
Italy's economy seen growing 4.1% this year
Volume of cargo loaded, unloaded in Iran’s Bandar Lengeh port announced
Turkmenistan’s growth of trade turnover in 1Q2021 announced
Turkish electrical goods' 1Q2021 export to Uzbekistan spikes
Azerbaijani president's assistant talks Turkic Council media co-op's systematization
Hungary considers Turkic Council member states important partners
Iran's Energy Exchange announces products to be on sale on April 11
Uzbekistan ready to actively partake in restoring Azerbaijan's liberated territories
Azerbaijan confirms 2,192 more COVID-19 cases, 1,554 recoveries
Turkey did its best in media coverage of Azerbaijan's Patriotic war - presidential administration
Azerbaijani president's assistant meets with Turkic Council's secretary-general
Briefing of Turkic Council's high-ranking media officials held in Baku (VIDEO)
Anti-Turkic campaigns periodically carried out - Azerbaijani president's assistant
Azerbaijan's victory in Second Karabakh War is victory for entire Turkic world - top official
Azerbaijan working to develop ties between Turkic states - president's assistant
Turkic Council developing roadmap for better co-op with Turkic-speaking countries
Turkic-speaking countries to continue to support Azerbaijan - Turkic Council
Armenia's refusal to provide maps of mines on Azerbaijan's lands is concerning - ambassador
Turkic Council's meeting held in Baku (PHOTO)
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for April 10
Kazakh, Uzbek PMs launch construction of new 'Central Asia' int'l co-op center
Turkish Ambassador: I've never separated Azerbaijan and Turkey, both are homeland to me
Buta Airways to Start Operating Flights to Zhukovsky Airport
Turkey's support for Azerbaijan in Karabakh war will always be in our memory - President Aliyev
Azerbaijan's MoD organizes visit for foreign military attaches to Air Force military unit
Turkish-Azerbaijani fraternal relations are at highest level today - President Aliyev
Iran's exports via Jolfa border checkpoint increase
Georgia reports 506 new coronavirus cases for April 10
SOCAR's capex to moderate due to SGC, STAR refinery’s commissioning
Certain licenses issued to setting up enterprises in Iran's Markazi Province
Turkey unveils 2M2021 data on freight, passenger traffic through Ankara Esenboga Airport
Azerbaijani oil prices up
Fitch Affirms SOCAR at 'BB+'
Turkmenistan's state budget revenues surpass initial forecast
Georgian TBC Leasing's secured debt rating equalizes with its Long-Term IDR
Azerbaijani president awards former Turkish ambassador with 'Dostlug' order
President Ilham Aliyev receives Turkish Ambassador to Azerbaijan Erkan Ozoral (PHOTO)
All news