OPEC: Global oil demand to rise by 1.1 mln bpd in 2012

Oil&Gas Materials 16 January 2012 18:11 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 16 /Trend, A.Badalova/

Word oil demand will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 88.9 mln bpd in 2012, compared to 87.84 mln bpd in 2011, according to OPEC's January report on oil market.

According to OPEC's forecasts, the highest level of global oil demand next year will occur in the fourth quarter - 90.04 mln bpd. In the first quarter of 2012, the demand will be 88.48 mln bpd, the second - 87.52 mln bpd, in the third quarter - 89.54 mln bpd.

"Oil demand will grow in 2012, but not without a great amount of uncertainty," OPEC's report says.

Oil demand in OECD countries this year is expected to decrease by 0.07 mln bpd to 45.8 mln bpd.

Developing countries' oil demand growth estimated at 0.64 mln bpd to average 27.6 mln bpd in 2011 and at 0.6 mln bpd to average 28.2 mln bpd in 2012.

According to OPEC's estimates, Europe's total contraction in oil demand stood at 0.16 mln bpd in 2011. For 2012, it is expected to shrink again by 0.16 mln bpd, as a result of the rather pessimistic economic developments and higher taxes.

OPEC forecasts oil demand in China in 2012 to amount to 9.82 mln bpd.

According to OPEC's estimates, global oil demand amounted to 89.09 mln bpd in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to 88.38 mln bpd in the third quarter of last year.

World oil supply

According to OPEC estimates, in December the volume of global oil supplies increased by 0.45 mln bpd compared to the previous month to 89.57 mln bpd.

The increase in non-OPEC supply in December supported global output, in addition to the increase of OPEC crude oil production, the report says.

The share of OPEC crude oil in global production remained steady at 34.5 percent in December.

Non-OPEC supply

According to the forecasts, non-OPEC supply will increase by 0.69 mln bpd and average 53.10 mln bpd in 2012.

The current supply expectation indicates a minor downward revision of 25 tb/d to total non-OPEC supply, while anticipated growth experienced an upward revision of 20 tb/d from a month earlier, OPEC's report says.

On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply is expected to average 53.14 mln bpd, 52.93 mln bpd, 52.98 mln bpd, and 53.34 mln bpd respectively.

According to OPEC, oil supplies by OECD countries will increased by 0.19 mln bpd to 20.24 mln bpd in 2012.

Oil production in the U.S. is projected at 15.68 mln bpd in 2012 compared to 15.44 mln bpd in 2011.

According to the OPEC forecasts, the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) will supply 13.42 mln bpd in 2012 or 0.13 mln bpd more than in 2011.