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US tight oil supply to expand sharply in medium-term

Oil&Gas Materials 6 November 2019 18:34

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.6

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

US tight oil supply will expand sharply by 6.7 mb/d in the medium-term, Trend reports citing OPEC’s World Economic Outlook (WOO).

Before that the tight oil supply will slow thereafter, showing only modest increases, reads the report.

“US tight oil supply is expected to peak at 17.4 mb/d in 2029. Tight oil production elsewhere has potential, but it is estimated to remain at relatively modest volumes,” said the cartel.

OPEC expects US total liquids are forecast to peak at 22.8 mb/d in the mid-2020s.

This is while total non-OPEC supply is forecast to reach 72.6 mb/d in 2026, but gradually decline thereafter to a level of 66.4 mb/d by 2040.

“Beyond the mid-2020s, only two non-OPEC countries are expected to show meaningful output growth, namely Brazil and Kazakhstan. Virtually all other non-OPEC producers are anticipated to see a decline in long-term liquids production,” says the report.

Non-OPEC total liquids supply is projected to grow by 9.9 mb/d between 2018 and 2024, reaching 72.2 mb/d, OPEC forecasts show.

The cartel believes that this is mainly driven by the return of modest increases in upstream investment and healthy demand. US tight oil is forecast to continue to expand at a strong pace, contributing just over 60 percent of this medium-term non-OPEC supply growth.

“In addition, a cyclical recovery elsewhere sees meaningful contributions from Brazil, Norway and Canada, in addition to expected barrels from newcomer Guyana,” said OPEC.

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Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

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