In Case of Victory Obama Will Not Fulfill Pre-Election Promises, Say Experts

Politics Materials 20 October 2008 18:30 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, 20 October / Trend , corr. V.Javoronkova/ Barak Obama, the evident leader in the presidential race in the United States, unlikely will fulfill the pre-election promises in the case of his victory, like many other presidents of the country, experts consider.

"There is no way his plans will be "fully implemented," since all presidential candidates promise a lot more than they can deliver, John McAdams, American expert on elections, said to Trend via e-mail.

There is left less than half of a month to the presidential elections in the U.S. and the candidates' speeches interest the Americans. The TV debates, on which the candidates delivered their programs, were watched by 3mln people in October. The recent debate between the candidates, according to the Nielsen Media Research, was watched by about 56.5mln people.

Barak Obama is the candidate to the presidential post from the Democratic Party, who passed ahead of his rival from the Republic party on 6-10 points according to different polls, promised a wide reform program to electorates. The program covers all spheres and foreign policy, as well. Obama is to launch the talks with Iran without preliminary conditions, promises to withdraw troops from Iraq within 16months after coming to the office, as well as is to cut taxes of 95% working population by $500 per year, to cover 2/3 cost of education in colleges on conditions that these students will work 100 hours in public works, medical insurance, which will cut expenditure by $2,500 per head. 

However, Americans, will rather, face disappointment. Whoever will be elected to the presidential post, the reality will force him to scale back his promises. How fully a President's promises can be kept will depend not only on his original sincerity, but also on the President's political success in mobilizing support from Congress, the availability of funds, and perhaps unanticipated political pressures, American experts on elections issues said.

The crisis has already forced Obama to take a step back. Obama has promised to double the foreign aid budget, but has said more recently that he would not be able to do so immediately because of the current economic crisis.

"There is no chance that Obama can carry out all of his promises. The United States has a large budget deficit, which is getting bigger. Although he currently denies it, simple arithmetic will force him to scale back on his plans," John Pitney, American expert on elections issue, said.

Proff. Macadams in the Harvard University consider that not only the deficit but a sharp economy recession, which will cut tax incomes, will restrict Obama's possibility.

"Obama will fail to implements the plans because there won't be enough money to pay for everything he wants to do," Cary Covington, another American expert on elections issue, said.

Implementing Obama's plans will depend mainly on what Congress will agree to. Since both houses of congress will probably be controlled by Democrats, the Republicans in the Senate might be able to use the filibuster to block what Obama and the democrats want to do, Covington said.
That happened to Clinton and he failed to implement the public reforms in the health care due to the Congress did not support him.

"Obama will have to make a compromise with Republicans in Senate to get his proposals enacted," Covington said.

Obama will not become the first president who will scale back his promises. 

The loudest unfulfilled pre-election programs for lately were the promises made by the President Lindon Jones not to send troops to Vietnam, the senior George Bush - not to increase taxes and Bill Clinton - to implement reform in the health care system and permit homosexuals to serve in army.

As a result the army of the United States stick in Vietnam for several years, lost the war and lost thousands of soldiers, taxes were increased, no reform was implemented in the health care system, and homosexuals remain discontent with  their sexual orientation still had not been legalized.

American analysts say that neither presidential candidate can carry out his pre-election promises.

" President overpromises in the campaign- more programs than there is money for, more tax cuts than the country can afford," Norman Ornstein, American political scientist and employee in the American Enterprise Institute, said.  

Most presidents try to implement about 3/4's of their promises. They usually succeed in getting about 1/2 of their promises enacted.

Not only experts but the residents of the United States know that the pre-election promises will not be delivered completely.

The electorates have a skeptic attitude towards the presidential campaigns, they need to estimate the character and personality of candidates, Macadams said.

Americans do not follow each letter and figure of candidates' platform, Peter Shane, a scientist in the Ohio State University, said.

"They assess promises as the index of political priorities and main values of each candidate. Americans rely on political leaders will move in the same direction, that do their campaigns," experts said.

The correspondent can be contacted at: [email protected]