Trend Persian Desk Head Dalga Khatinoglu
"Black Gold" which brings about 70 percent of the revenues to Iran's economy has turned into rhymes in the presidential candidates' statements. Who will lose on the outcome of debates in this rhyme competition?
Iran's current president has promised in the presidential election in 2005 that revenues from oil exports would be directed to the people's welfare. In 2008, the world oil price reached $157 dollars per a barrel. Net oil exports from Iran amounted to $244 billion dollars over the past four years.
According to Ahmadinejad's critics, these mythical oil revenues have been wasted as a result of wrong economic policy. In the last four years, Ahmadinejad has sent oil revenues to loan the economy and issue bonds, thereby doubling the amount of funds on the market (according to the latest May report of the Iranian Economic newspaper). As a result, inflation reached 25 percent.
However, Ahmadinejad continues to sound slogans on distribution of oil money. The Iranian president said on May 19 that he will "remove mafia from oil" and "will allocate $80 to each poor people from oil revenues per month."
Another presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi promised during the elections in 2005 that he would distribute income from oil exports amongst the population. But now he blames Ahmadinejad is that he repeats his words.
Another presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi, sharply criticized Ahmadinejad last week for "loss of $300 billion from oil revenues over the past four years" and said that the government avoids to answer on the expenditure of these funds.
Is a four-year unsuccessful use of oil revenues Ahmadinejad's "Achilles heel"?
Experts have repeatedly criticized Ahmadinejad's unsuccessful economic plans. Most of Iran's population receives information through television, which is fully linked with the government.
In 2008, Ahmadinejad presented to the parliament a plan of elimination of subsidies in the energy sector and the issuance of $60 per person. The parliament considered that the president's initiative could lead to inflation and rejected it.
Television is not just to inform people about this, and, in the case of necessity, Ahmadinejad will be able to enlist people's support. Director of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Ezzatollah Zarghami stated this during the TV debates between presidential candidates, as well. So, Ahmadinejad will be able to defend himself and not avoid the debates.
In my view, the promises to allocate funds from the oil revenues to the people are unreal. First, it can lead to a sharp increase in inflation, on the other hand, if this year, the oil price does not increase, the deficit of 2009 public budget approved by the parliament will amount to $ 8 billion. In this regard, the hopes to distribute oil revenues among the population will be groundless.