Russia, Moscow / corr Trend R.Agayev / It is not worth it to be optimistic and consider that any progress between the United States and Russia on the Gabala Radar Station could lead to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to political expert, head of the Department of Inter-Nation Relations of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, Sergey Markedonov .
Commenting on the results of talks between the President of Azerbaijan and Armenia in St. Petersburg on 9 June, Markedonov noted that he does not see any ground to state that any progress is possible. There are no compromises in approaches and compromises in the figures, and these compromise are not predicted, while statements by mediators are an attempt to justify their activities, or more exactly their inactivity, because no real projects are being offered," he added.
Over fifteen years of conducting talks on resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh, all possible, even the by-package, by-stage resolution, and exchange of territory, has been offered. They will hardly offer something new. Karabakh cannot be considered the Western bank of the Jordan River and the Gazza Sector. This is a Jerusalem sacred for both Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
If progress between the United States and Russia in the issue of joint use of the Gabala Radar Station leads to any result, this will be the resolution of the problem. "Indeed such attempts will be taken by Azerbaijan and it is logical. I am not sure that it will produce a serious breakthrough, both the United States and Russia have factors that restrict a pro-Azerbaijani policy," Markedonov stressed.
For the United States it is an authoritative Armenian lobby, and similarly, the Armenian community in Russia is 1,000,000 strong. The political expert is sure in the intensification of talks on Kazakhstan, appearance of new or projects introduced as new, whereas the settlement is presented as impossible at present.
As to success of the United States, or Russia in the Gabala issue, the political expert stressed that the project has two components - political and military. With respect to military constituents, Markedonov said that even dilettantes understand that radar cannot blow up missiles. "It can only note the launch of the so-called possible enemy, but cannot blow them up. It certainly does not cancel the missile-defense system. Some Western media wrote, and not accidentally, that 'Putin accepted our truth and acknowledged that there is a need for a missile defense system. That is all what concerns the military constituent." Markedonov noted.
As to the political constituent, the political expert said that it is necessary to note that the United States and Russia need Azerbaijan as stable and secular, even if authoritarian. " Russia does not have any interest here, while the United State might have. The United States forgives Azerbaijan for stepping back towards traditional canons on human rights, democracy, etc. In 2003, like in 2005, Russia and the United States received the Azerbaijan presidential elections in a regular way. But I think in 2008, the United States and Russia will rival to be the first in congratulating Ilham Aliyev [the Azerbaijani President] on his victory," Markedonov stressed.
The Russian political expert said that in political sense, Russia ad the United States need stable, secular and modern Azerbaijan, i.e. a point of contact. " it seems only possible to find common spheres of cooperation between the United States and Russia, in particular, in the South Caucasus. It can be fully realized," he emphasized.