Russia, Moscow / corr Trend R Agayev / Russian President Putin 'blew up' G8 with his proposal on the placement of missile defense elements at the Gabala Radar Station in Azerbaijan and the United States won back splendidly and very calmly - when put a finger in their mouth, they eat you hand. They agreed to be present in the Gabala RS, but at the same did not refuse from their plans of placing the missile defense system in East Europe. In terms of 'PR', they were actually victorious, according to the Director of the Russian Institute of Globalization Problems, Mikhael Delyagin .
Russia could prevent the US penetration in to the South Caucasus. "This is not the fact that we succeeded to retain Gabala RS in general, but we have to maintain it on parity basis with American [the United States] from 2012, when the leasing period ends. Nevertheless, the effect of the blow was repelled by Americans. The more probable variant is that even if Americans agree upon on the proposal on Gabala , they will continue plan on missile defense plans in Europe.
Gabala is radar station and there does not exist any anti-missile system. Should there antimissile is placed, it will have a dead zone for 1,000km. Gabala is located not far from Iran and there is a probability for launching Iranian missiles will be carried out in a distance of less than 1,000km. It is necessary to study the issue on geological mining terms and on the map, but such probability exits theoretically. The question is to what extent this area is proper, because it is mountainous zone. However, the launch can be carried out from the Caspian coast. So, from the military aspect the US position is invulnerable," Delyagin assures.
"Moreover, I don't believe Iran will be allowed to set up its system. I don't expect the United States to allow Iranian to produce nuclear bomb. However, the situation develops in the way, which promises that next year Iran will have nuclear bombs, and the testing will be carried out maximal cynicism in summer, on the eve of the elections in the United States. The testing will be on land to violate the agreement. The testing will occur under cameras of CNN so that to make a maximal psychological effect on the West. The logic of developments pushes Americans to make blows on Iran - one-day blows, but very painful. It will not destroy two naval bases, but the nuclear program will be put back for 5 years, the management system in Iran will damage and it will hardly think over missiles." The Russian political expert assured.
Delyagin assures that an agreement on Gabala have been in progress long ago and in mid-May the Russian Ambassador spoke about opportunities and desirability of allowing the United States to the Gabala RS. At present Russia acts on the following principle "if it is our base, the Americans will be against of it, but if a joint one then they will not object seriously'. "But it cannot be a statement by a country which considers having definite interests. Unfortunately, our [Russian] diplomacy behaves in this way," he stressed.
Delyagin thinks that in response to placement of US plans of placing missiles and radars in Poland and Czech republic, Russia could propose Ukrainian President Alexander Lukashenko to place in Belarus missile of small and medium distance, and these missiles will officially belong to Belarus. " Lukashenko will accept it will be a great pleasure, but is will to normalize its worse relations with Belarus. In don't think Lukashenko to reject Veshnyakov's candidature to the post of CIS Executive Secretary," he clarified.