BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 26. Russia's coal production is expected to grow by 2.9 percent in 2023, reaching 457 million tons, Trend reports.
According to the forecast made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the introduction of an export duty on coal starting in October 2023 is expected to exert pressure on both exports and production.
Furthermore, the reorganization of supply chains towards the east may lead to ongoing disruptions in production; in 2023, railway deliveries to western and southern export terminals faced limitations.
Meanwhile, in 2022, Russia kept its coal production steady at around 444 million tons, showing a small increase of 0.3 percent. Sanctions slapped on Russia due to its Ukraine invasion and train congestion towards the east slowed down efforts to ramp up production despite soaring global demand and coal prices. This geopolitical scenario led to a production shift within Russia, moving from the central and western regions toward the eastern areas.
Until 2026, the IEA anticipates a decrease in coal production in central Russia, while production in the eastern sites is expected to continue its upward trend, fostering stronger connections with China.
However, with the probable decline in global seaborne import demand over the next three years, this is likely to affect Russian exports, consequently influencing overall production, the agency noted. The IEA projects a collective decrease in coal production in Russia by 18 million tons, bringing it down to 439 million tons.