BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 19. Anticipated growth in US liquids production, excluding processing gains, is forecasted at 0.6 mb/d year-on-year, reaching an average of 22 mb/d in 2025, Trend reports.
According to OPEC, this projection is based on expectations of a mild uptick in drilling activity, reduced service cost inflation, and enhanced well productivity in key shale basins.
Crude oil and condensate output are poised to increase by 0.4 mb/d year-on-year, reaching an average of 13.6 mb/d, the forecast says. Concurrently, NGL production, along with that of non-conventional liquids, particularly ethanol, is estimated to rise by 0.2 mb/d and 20,000 b/d year-on-year, settling at averages of 6.8 mb/d and 1.6 mb/d, respectively.
The forecast also indicates that average tight crude output in 2025 is expected to hit 9.1 mb/d, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 mb/d.
Meanwhile, in 2023, OPEC estimates that US liquids production, excluding processing gains, has witnessed a year-on-year expansion of 1.5 mb/d, averaging 20.8 mb/d. At the same time, crude oil and condensate output increased by 1 mb/d year-on-year, averaging 12.9 mb/d. The estimated average tight crude output for 2023 stands at 8.3 mb/d, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6 mb/d.
In 2024, it is anticipated that US liquids production, excluding processing gains, will experience a year-on-year growth of 0.6 mb/d, reaching an average of 21.4 mb/d. This projection is based on the assumption of a moderate level of drilling activity and reduced supply chain/logistical challenges at the prolific Permian, Bakken, and Eagle Ford shale sites. Crude oil and condensate outputs are expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d year-on-year, averaging 13.2 mb/d.
Concurrently, NGL production, along with non-conventional liquids, particularly ethanol, is estimated to rise by 0.2 mb/d and 30,000 b/d year-on-year, settling at averages of 6.6 mb/d and 1.6 mb/d, respectively. The average tight crude output for 2024 is predicted to reach 8.7 mb/d, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 mb/d.