Baku, Azerbaijan, Aug.4
By Aygun Badalova – Trend:
Oil supplies from non-OPEC countries will decrease to 53.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2016 and 53 million bpd in 2017 compared to 54.6 million bpd in 2015, according to the forecasts of the US JP Morgan bank’s analysts.
“The decline we expect to see in non-OPEC supply is not universal thanks to the ongoing delivery of new fields, or upgrades to existing fields that are starting up this year,” analysts said in a report, obtained by Trend.
“This hangover from the last price cycle still offers an offset to rising decline rates in mature areas and while we expect these signs of resilience to fade in coming quarters, the impact in the short term of new projects can be material to the supply outlook", analysts said.
In 2017, on the quarterly basis, analysts forecast non-OPEC oil supply at 53 million bpd, 52.7 million bpd, 52.9 million bod and 53.4 million bpd respectively.
Oil supply from those countries will average 52.9 million bpd in the third quarter of 2016 and 53 million bpd in the fourth quarter of the year.
US oil supply is expected at 12.2 million bpd this year and 12.1 million bpd next year.
Middle East, according to the analysts’ forecasts, will supply 1.3 million bpd in 2016 and 1.2 million bpd in 2017.
Russia’s oil supply is forecasted at 11.1 million bpd in 2016 and 2017, FSU countries – at 14 million bpd and 14.1 million bpd this and next year respectively.
According to OPEC’s latest report, non-cartel oil supply will decline by 0.11 million bpd to average 55.92 million bpd.
Brazil, Canada, Congo and Malaysia are the main drivers of growth, while Mexico, the US, Norway, Colombia, China, Kazakhstan and Russia are the main reasons for declines, according to the report.