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Israeli gas exports via TANAP: 5 reasons for low probability

Oil&Gas Materials 27 July 2020 15:24
Israeli gas exports via TANAP: 5 reasons for low probability

BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 27

By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:

Israeli gas transit to Europe via Turkey through the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) is not likely due to five reasons, Trend reports with reference to the the book titled “The Southern Gas Corridor and its importance for South-East Europe”.

“There are those who continue to claim that Israeli and/or Cypriot gas could merely transit to Europe via Turkey via the TANAP/TAP (Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline/Trans Adriatic Pipeline) system,” reads the book.

However, the proponents of a Turkish transit option for East Med gas fail to take into account that:

there is no connection between TANAP and the Ceyhan region; a new dedicated pipeline transporting gas from southern Turkey to the central Turkish Pipeline grid or TANAP will be required;

- TANAP is fully booked for the transportation of Azeri gas exports from Shah Deniz 2 (by 2022) amounting to 16 bcm/year and from other Azeri fields in the Caspian Sea amounting potentially to another 10 bcm/year, which will come on stream after 2025, approximately the same time Leviathan Phase 2 gas will become available. That leaves only 5 bcm/year of unreserved capacity in TANAP that can be more easily, and more cost effectively booked by Iranian gas exports;

- there is no free capacity in TAP for East Med gas, for the same reasons since Azeri-based producers from the Shah Deniz consortium will give priority to their own gas to cover the additional 10 bcm of TAP’s Phase 2;

- there is no pipeline system presently available to carry gas from the Turkish–EU border to its final EU market destinations in Baumgarten, unless a new Nabucco West project is resurrected which would need to be constructed from scratch;

- Under current political conditions and given the deterioration of the overall Turkish-EU relationship, the EU has nothing to gain from increasing its transit-gas dependence on Turkey, which will only increase as SGC volumes expand and TurkStream 2 carries additional Russian exports to Southeastern Europe.

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Follow the author on Twitter:@Lyaman_Zeyn

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