...

Oil demand in aviation to continue to grow until 2050

Oil&Gas Materials 22 April 2021 10:10 (UTC +04:00)
Oil demand in aviation to continue to grow until 2050

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Apr.22

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Through 2025, oil demand is still affected by Covid-19 impacts and EVs are still slow to take off, Trend reports citing Rystad Energy, an independent energy research and business intelligence company

“Then from 2025-2035, structural declines and substitution impacts -especially in trucks - take hold, and then finally, towards 2050, the recycling of plastics and accelerated technologies in maritime will be the final transition leg bringing oil demand further down towards 51 million bpd in 2050 in our Mean Case,” the company said.

Road transport (passenger vehicles, buses and freight), which makes up over 48 percent of oil demand, will be the ultimate driver of the transition, according to Rystad Energy.

“The swiftest transition is already well underway in the electric passenger vehicle sector, which currently makes up 6 percent of global vehicle sales, but will account for 23 percent by 2025 and then accelerate towards 96 percent penetration by 2050.

Trucks, which account for 18 percent of total demand, will not electrify in the short-term, but when the adoption occurs in the mid-2030s and begins reaching critical mass, the substitution impact will be much higher on a per-unit basis compared to smaller vehicles that use less fuel.

EV trucks will benefit from the technology groundwork already being established in passenger vehicles. Buses will also see a gradual transition from petroleum diesel to electric and biofuels. The EV truck market share will rise to 6 percent in 2025, 21 percent in 2030, and 61 percent in 2040,” said the company.

Petrochemicals, which make up 14 percent of total oil demand, are expected to grow until at least the mid-2030s as plastics consumption per capita grows worldwide. The demand then peaks as plastics recycling rates converge towards 75-80 percent, as observed in glass and metals, from the current effective rate of 5 percent, at the same time as hydrogen-sourced feedstock picks up from less than 1 percent today to 30 percent of the virgin petrochemical feedstock for LDPE, HDPE, PP and PVC plastics production in 2030.

Maritime, which makes up 6 percent of demand, is expected to be dominated by oil for at least through the mid-2030s, after which we expect to see switching to LNG, hydrogen, electric batteries, and other carbon-neutral vessels, especially in newbuilds. This sector already underwent a big transition with IMO 2020, which saw the switching from high-sulfur fuel to ultra-low sulfur fuel.

Aviation, which makes up less than 7 percent of oil demand, is expected to continue to grow until 2050 as no viable oil substitution technology exists. The gradual introduction of bio-jet fuel will limit pure kerosene jet fuel demand growth but will not affect the strong upward trajectory in aviation through 2050, unless a viable alternative technology is introduced.

---

Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

Tags:
Latest

Latest