BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 7
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
It was always likely that Turkey’s Black Sea resource estimates would grow thanks to continued appraisal of the giant Sakarya discovery and new exploration wells by Turkey’s own drillships, Ashley Sherman, principal analyst, upstream at Wood Mackenzie told Trend.
“By the official numbers, this success with the Amasra-1 well brings the Black Sea volumes discovered by Turkey in 2020-21 to 540 billion cubic metres. Optimistically, if 100 percent were recovered, that’s equivalent to around 12 years of Turkey’s current, overwhelmingly import-dominated, gas demand,” he said.
Sherman noted that the strategic focus now needs to shift even more from adding resources to developing the volumes already discovered.
“That means consistent progress offshore – with wells and pipelines – and onshore at the gas plant site at Filyos. A 2023 date for first production still looks ambitious, even from the smaller-scale Phase One. Reaping the supply rewards on such an accelerated timeline remains complex and expensive, no matter the political and economic importance.
One thing has been clear since Sakarya was discovered in 2020: Turkey’s Black Sea exploration success has strengthened its negotiating hand with its piped gas import sources – Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia. Giving it more ability to push for lower prices, lower volumes and greater contract flexibility. That will not only be seen in renewal conversations still to come. It’s already true in current talks with as close a partner as Azerbaijan, for a long-term contract that expired in April and is still yet to be renewed,” the expert concluded.
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