BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 23
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
It is likely that the Iranian authorities would try at a later stage to attract again foreign investment in their oil and gas industry, Francis Perrin, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS, Rabat) and at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS, Paris) told Trend.
It remains to be seen under which contractual terms such partnerships could be concluded, the expert believes.
“One of the priorities of the regime is also to implement the strategic cooperation agreement signed with China at the end of March 2021. This agreement provides for huge investments by China in various sectors of the Iranian economy and for much higher deliveries of Iranian oil to China,” he noted.
Perrin pointed out that the main priority of the new President of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to reach an agreement with the United States, which would allow the lifting/suspension of U.S. economic sanctions.
“These sanctions, which were imposed by the Trump Administration in 2018, led to a sharp fall of Iran's oil production and exports. In order for the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to be able to increase significantly its oil production and exports, it is crucial for the regime to get rid of U.S. sanctions as soon as possible.
Negotiations about the Vienna agreement of July 2015 (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - JCPOA) are going on in Vienna between the U.S., Iran and the European Union and there has been some progress over the past few weeks before the election of Ebrahim Raissi,” he said.
The expert recalled that when OPEC+ countries (13 OPEC countries and 10 non-OPEC countries) decided in April 2020 to reduce their oil output three countries were exempted: Iran, Libya and Venezuela.
“If U.S. sanctions were to be lifted very soon, which is not a done deal, Iran would argue that it should be able to go up to its previous (this means pre-May 2018) production and export levels before being submitted to OPEC+ quotas. The priority for the regime in this scenario would be for NIOC to open negotiations with Asian and European countries which were buyers of Iranian crudes before President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Vienna agreement. If an Iran/U.S. agreement was concluded in July (probably not the most likely scenario) NIOC would be in a position to reach its previous production and export levels at the end of 2021 or beginning of 2022. It is at this stage that Tehran would be ready to consider seriously with other OPEC+ countries a ceiling for its oil production,” Perrin concluded.
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