BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.18
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
In 2030, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that coal-fired generation will start displacing some natural gas-fired generation in Other non-OECD Asia because of abundant coal resources that can be competitively mined, natural gas prices that are projected to increase after 2030, and a lack of carbon policies or regulations in the region, Trend reports with reference to EIA.
Coal-fired generation will steadily increase in Other non-OECD Asia through 2050; coal’s share of the region’s generation mix is projected to increase from 33 percent in 2020 to almost 50 percent in 2050.
“In the Reference case of our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021), where we assume current laws and regulations continue into the future, we project that renewable resources—particularly solar and wind—will be the largest contributor to the growth in electricity generation through 2050. However, certain regions will still mainly use coal resources for electricity generation. Of the world’s existing coal-fired generating capacity, 99 percent consists of boilers and steam turbine units that are as much as 30 percent less efficient than natural gas-fired combined-cycle units that use the latest technology. Because natural gas-fired generators are more efficient than coal-fired generators at converting fuel to electricity, natural gas-fired generation is often a lower-cost option, even if the fuel price of natural gas is slightly higher than the fuel price of coal,” reads the EIA report.
However, the absence of regional carbon policies or regulations along with rising natural gas prices after 2030—particularly in Asia and in regions that rely on higher-cost liquefied natural gas (LNG)—is likely to make coal the most economical generation fuel to pair with increased intermittent generation from wind and solar, says the energy administration.
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