BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 26. Kazakhstan’s national currency, Kazakh tenge, is projected to reach an exchange rate of 490 per $1, Renaissance Capital told Trend.
According to the investment bank, an expected recovery in the output and exports of Kazakhstan oil should be supportive of Kazakhstan's external balance. At the same time, softer fiscal policy and growing imports will cap potential appreciation.
The exchange rate is expected to reach 500 Kazakh tenge for $1 in 2024.
However, Renaissance Capital expects this prediction to materialize under the base case scenario, with Brent at $80-90 per barrel.
With the oil prices varying from $50 to $110 per barrel, the Kazakh tenge forecast changes from 520-525 per $1 to 460-470 per $1 respectively.
Meanwhile, the investment bank adds that the main vulnerabilities to the forecast stem from possible disruption of the oil exports through the Russian infrastructure, which could be conditional on geopolitical developments
Renaissance Capital is one of the leading investment banks in emerging frontiers with a special focus on Russia & CIS, Central & Eastern Europe, Africa, and MENA.