BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 9
By Ilkin Seyfaddini - Trend:
The World Bank has updated its forecast for Uzbekistan’s economy and the expected GDP growth rate fell from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent, Trend reports citing the bank’s review.
At the same time, Uzbekistan is the only country among European and Central Asian countries, whose economy will continue to grow. In 2021, the WB forecasts 6.6 percent GDP growth in Uzbekistan.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the countries of Europe and Central Asia due to the collapse of world commodity prices, disruptions in global and regional supply chains and a [sharp] rise in risk aversion in financial markets. The growing coronavirus outbreak in the region has exacerbated the decline in domestic demand, worsened supply disruptions and resulted in the suspension of much economic activity," the review says.
Experts estimate that the region's economy is expected to decline by 4.7 percent, with almost all countries affected by the recession.
“This forecast is based on the assumption that restrictive measures imposed by governments will be phased out by the beginning of the second half of the year. Under a scenario involving a gradual smoothing of the impact of the pandemic and a recovery in trade and investment, the economies of Europe and Central Asia are expected to recover in 2021, showing growth of 3.6 percent," experts say.
The World Bank experts believe that further spread of infection across the region and the adoption of restrictive measures will place an even heavier burden on consumption and investment.
"In addition, a sharp drop in remittances could exacerbate the downturn in the region's economies. A prolonged recession could have a negative impact on the financial sector in the region and increase the risk of financial instability," said the bank.
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