BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 15
By Sadraddin Aghjayev - Trend:
Russian Gazprombank expects that the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), following the upcoming meeting on Friday, December 17, will raise the refinancing rate by 100 basis points - up to eight percent, deputy head of the department for a market analysis of Gazprombank Gulnara Haydarshina told Trend.
According to Haydarshina, the bank believes that inflation is deviating further and further from the target of the Central Bank, including in connection with its growth in the countries - key exporters to Azerbaijan.
"In addition, fiscal incentives are already creating soft monetary conditions, economic growth is accelerating, real rates on deposits in the national currency have become negative," she said.
Under these conditions, according to the head of the department, Gazprombank expects the rate to remain in the negative zone.
“We expect the press release to be tough, indicating the possibility of another significant rate hike. This approach will ease inflation expectations and support the attractiveness of local currency deposits. At the same time, a negative effect on the trajectory of economic recovery is likely. In our opinion, it will be insignificant and will only slightly adjust the rate of recovery, which has recently outpaced expectations," Haydarshina said.
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