Iran will soon have to make decisions in real time

Iran will soon have to make decisions in real time

Baku, Azerbaijan, May 27

By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:

When esteemed experts say that both sides – the US and Iran – do not want a military solution, they are probably right. However, the reasons for both sides are different.

The United States uses the tactics of anaconda, strangling Iran's economy by its coils and seeing that it works.

Turkey and India – being among the last importers of Iranian oil – officially announced that they stopped buying it.

Iran halted to reveal information about oil exports. However, data from various international sources, such as Refinitiv Eikon, SVB Energy International, OPEC and Reuters, show that the sales volume is an average 400-450 thousand barrels per day, including condensate.

This figure, if accurate, is twice less than the lowest pre-JCPOA (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) volumes for 2014 and 2015, when Iran’s export was about 1 million b/d.

It is important for the US to preserve the current status-quo, although the White house does not exclude its sliding to a use of force, accumulating large forces in the Persian Gulf region.

Also, Iran's rejection of some provisions of the nuclear deal gives the US administration a reason to expect that one day the EU will return to the pre-JCPOA status quo and join the sanctions.

As the Iranian leadership believes, from the parties to the nuclear agreement only Russia and China fulfill their obligations, while the EU has failed to keep its promises to save the deal and facilitate Iran’s economic trade with the international community.

In his statement on May 21, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Abbas Mousavi sent a clear message to Europe in ironic manner, saying that Tehran is ready to fully support JCPOA and implement it exactly like France and other European signatories. Mousavi’s message came in response to his French counterpart’s statement that Paris strongly urges Iran to continue to implement all of its obligations under the JCPOA.

If there are no tangible results in 60 days, that is, if the EU's trade relations with Iran are not restored, Tehran will resume uranium enrichment. This is likely to mean death of the nuclear agreement. Given the EU's ambiguous stance, it’s just coming.

How can Tehran respond?

In the first place, among Tehran’s assets, there are armed groups of the multinational Shia militia operating in the entire region, ensuring Iranian influence.

On the official website of the Washington Institute, there is an interesting interactive map, arranged by Phillip Smyth, and showing positions of Shia militia in the Middle East. If you do not know the content and simply look at the map, it may seem that this is about the conquests by the Islamic State – so similar are the territories controlled by Shia troops in Iraq and Syria, and the density of their forces.

This is a very powerful force. They will try to take the US military hostage wherever possible. The similar idea has been voiced by Iran’s IRGC (Iranian revolutionary Guard Corps) spokesman Ramezan Sharif, who said that US soldiers in the region will be captured by the Revolutionary Guard if they transgress against his country.

But, in the end, this will not help, let alone drone attacks of the Yemeni Houthies. If deprived of unified command and financing as a result of war, most of the Shia armed troops will likely turn into unaccountable semi-criminal mercenaries.

There are still ballistic missiles with high precision guidance, which Iran possesses, but in general, Tehran is well-aware that the US-Iran military capacities are incomparably unequal. Therefore, Iran does not want a war, too.

On Monday May 27, at a joint press conference with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo, President Trump has made peaceful statements regarding Iran, saying that he did not want to see terrible things happen and that he was not looking for a regime change in Iran. Instead, he wants to see no nuclear weapons and believes that one day the parties will make a deal.

“I do believe that Iran would like to talk, and if they would like to talk, we would like to talk also,” Trump said.

Tehran is still silent...maybe because today, on May 27, is a day-off in Iran, or maybe because the top Iranian leadership, having obtained another chance to come to terms, is holding heated discussions about which way to go.

However, the “coils of anaconda” are constricting more and more tightly. There may soon be a time when Iran will not be able to plan further action and will have to make decisions in real time, where there is a probability to make a critical mistake.

Subscribe to Trend in Google News! Subscribe
Cost of cargo transported via trains up in Azerbaijan
Cost of cargo transported via trains up in Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan completes over half of construction of Barda-Aghdam highway
Azerbaijan completes over half of construction of Barda-Aghdam highway
Azerbaijan-Iran plan to build new bridge to increase traffic
Azerbaijan-Iran plan to build new bridge to increase traffic
Loading Bars
Latest
Mandatory vaccination should be a last resort, says WHO Europe chief
Bolsonaro dismisses vaccination requirement for entry into Brazil
Israel announces completion of high-tech barrier around Gaza
Northern Ireland reports first Omicron cases
Police officer killed in NW Pakistan's firing
Sweden to reintroduce many COVID-19 measures as cases rise
Armenia has no choice but to open Zangazur corridor - experts
Turkey, Qatar strengthen bilateral ties with 15 new deals
Georgian parliamentary delegation visits Washington
Chinese company plans to build a technopark and solar power plant in Uzbekistan
WHO donates 260k packs of intravenous solutions to Iran
Cost of cargo transported via trains up in Azerbaijan
International Court of Justice grants Azerbaijan's request for temporary measures against Armenia
Western media shows neutral approach to Azerbaijan’s Zangazur corridor - Head of Trend News Agency’s Foreign Projects Directorate
Azerbaijan donates 100,000 doses of Sinovac vaccine against COVID-19 to Burkina Faso (PHOTO)
Information spread in Armenian media about killing of illegal militant on territory of Azerbaijan is baseless – MoD
Azerbaijani MFA comments on statement of Armenian foreign ministry
International Court of Justice urges Armenia to take urgent measures against groups and individuals making violent calls on ethnic grounds
International Court of Justice refused to secure Armenia's claim for immediate return of so-called POWs
Azerbaijan completes over half of construction of Barda-Aghdam highway
Azerbaijan building new high-speed road in Shusha city
Azerbaijan-Iran plan to build new bridge to increase traffic
Iran Securities and Exchange Organization focusing on strengthening Capital Market Stabilization Fund
Iran looks to expand agricultural ties with Romania
EIB, EBRD touch on Georgia’s economic growth
Price indexes of industrial, trade sectors at Uzbek stock exchange fall
Georgia shortens terms of COVID-19 booster vaccination
Azerbaijan shares data on 10M2021 oil exports to Vietnam
Uzbekistan shares stats on export of textile products for 10M2021
Kazakhstan's KMG talks project of new gas processing plant in Mangistau
Iran's Bahar Azadi gold coin price increases
Azerbaijan sees decrease in import of vehicles, spare parts over 10M2021
Volume of loaded/unloaded cargo in Iran’s Qeshm port up
Value of Azerbaijan's export to Turkmenistan up for 10M2021
Azerbaijan’s energy ministry opens tender to buy technical support services
Azerbaijan-Iran to take steps to increase trade turnover – Iranian ambassador
Shootout occurs on border between Azerbaijan and Iran - offender neutralized
Baku Int'l Sea Trade Port reveals details of dev’t strategy until 2035
First harvest gathered in mushroom greenhouse in Turkmenistan’s Mary region
Azerbaijan-Iran implementing agreements on joint cooperation – ambassador
Germany's next finance minister stresses price stability
SOFAZ shares estimates of budget revenues for 2022
Iran opens office for cargo barter with Pakistan
Number of legal entities restoring activity in Azerbaijan slightly increases in 11M2021
President Ilham Aliyev receives President for Exploration and Production of TotalEnergies (VIDEO)
Indian embassy in Baku holds webinar on electronic and computer hardware/software products (PHOTO)
Sport in Azerbaijan - integral part of state policy, deputy minister says
Bank of Israel bought $4 bln of FX in Nov, hits $34 bln in 2021
India's Rajnath Singh attends maiden 2+2 Dialogue with Russia
Less urgent need to rebuild stocks to weigh on coal demand
Omicron poses a major risk to global oil demand
Azerbaijan shares data on number of vaccinated citizens
Azerbaijan confirms 1,530 more COVID-19 cases, 1,864 recoveries
Azerbaijan, Russia’s Astrakhan sign action program to develop co-op (PHOTO)
Georgia shares data on cigarettes turnover in 10M2021
President Ilham Aliyev signs order appointing new chairman of State Insurance Commerce Company
Georgia’s imports of fuel and lubricants from Kazakhstan plummet
EU health bodies recommend mix-and-match of COVID-19 vaccines
Georgian apple exports on rise
Number of taxpayers increases in Azerbaijan over 11M2021
Kazakhstan increases volume of production of crude oil and oil products
Kazakhstan shares data on coal production
Turkmenistan becomes top oil exporter to Georgia
Armenia should fulfill requirements of documents signed after Second Karabakh War – Turkish official
Google Pay begins operating in Israel
Volume of electricity production in Uzbekistan for 10M2021 unveiled
Azerbaijan records growth in cost of air cargo transport for 10M2021
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for December 7
Central Bank of Azerbaijan reveals amount of foreign currency sold via auction
Non-oil exports in Azerbaijan to reach record high – minister
Opening of Azerbaijan’s Zangazur corridor may reduce transportation time from China to Europe
Azerbaijan to auction several mineral deposits
Epsilon obtains industrial gas inflow from new well at field in Uzbekistan
bp to develop best barrels, make portfolio higher value, says CEO
Azerbaijani State Tourism Agency talks about prices for air tickets (Exclusive)
Iran’s IMPASCO aims to transfer shares of some mining complexes to private sector
bp going to invest 10 times more in low carbon by 2030 - Bernard Looney
What does gas swap deal between Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran promise?
Baku Stock Exchange talks priorities in trade turnover until 2023
Turkey, Iran trade turnover grows in October 2021
Georgia shares top importers of its hazelnuts
bp achieves increase in productivity in Azerbaijan with new agile organizational structure
Russia’s new daily coronavirus cases below 32,000 for first time since October 14
Iran pins big hopes on gas swap contract, aims for European exports in near future, says ambassador (Exclusive)
Turkmen agriculture ministry opens tender for purchase of veterinary vaccines
Iran eyes increase in flights via Rasht International Airport
Kazakh oilfield construction company opens tender to buy pipes
Kazakhstan eyes diversifying trade flows with ECO countries
Azerbaijan’s Baku Int’l Sea Trade Port expects increase in flow of goods
Georgia’s spice exports to Central Asia down
Uzbekistan reveals volume of exports and imports for 10M2021
Volume of foreign trade turnover increases in Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan sees multifold decrease in trade with South Korea
Eurostat discloses Azerbaijan’s petroleum exports to Italy
Bank of Georgia to begin offering preferential agro-credit
Georgia’s export of spices remains steady - Geostat
Azerbaijan’s oil exports to Romania for 10M2021revealed
Baku port reveals cargo shipment capability of Ro-Ro terminal
Azerbaijan shares forecast on total cargo shipment via Baku int'l trade port for 2021 (PHOTO)
Kazakh Ulba Metallurgical Plant opens tender for cargo transportation services
All news