Azerbaijan, Baku, 3 March / corr. Trend R. Agayev, R. Hafizoglu, D. Khatinoglu, A. Gasimova, N.Kirtskhlia / Experts of .neighboring countries of Armenia do not rule out e destabilization of the situation in the country even after the curfew and are skeptical of the possible revolution. If there were plans to make an orange revolution in Armenia, then the police and government would have faced with a fitting rebuff while dispersing the demonstration, Sergey Merkedonov, the renowned Russian expert said.
The President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan decreed on 2 March to impose a state of emergency for 20 days after the demonstration of the opposition against the false outcome of the election that lasted for many days flared into a confrontation with the police. According to the Health Ministry of Armenia of 3 March, the general number of those injured during the clashes in Yerevan on 1 and 2 March totaled 131 and 8 people were shot dead.
"There is no doubt that the majority is dissatisfied with the Armenian government, but it is not the critical mass that could make an orange revolution," Markedonov, the head of Department for the International Relation Problems of the Institute of the Political and Military Analysis of Russia said.
According to the expert, the Armenian government should learn a lesson from the latest developments and if the government will go on using force, it will not be to its favor; however, if some of the demands by the opposition can be taken into account, then the danger of orange revolution could be averted. "The complicated situation in Armenia is attributed to the fact that the government and opposition are not prepared to cooperate with discussions at the moment," the political scientist said. "We do not know who stands behind the latest developments in Armenia as we do not have access to certain documents at the moment. Both the government and the opposition are to be blamed," he said.
Markedonov said that disorder took place in Armenia in 1996 as well when Ter-Petrosyan won the presidential elections and the opposition candidate Vazgen Manukyan organized mass demonstrations. According to Markedonov, similar developments took place in Azerbaijan in 2003 and in Tbilisi in January 2008. "As for the human victims, this aggravates the general situation which is typical of the post-soviet space as in the case of Kyrgyzstan," Mammadov said.
The Turkish expert Arif Keskin said that Armenia is the ground where the interests of Europe and Russia clash and it is impossible to make a revolution in the country. "It is impossible to presume a revolution as the Armenian people are more pro-Russian rather than pro-western. In general, the population of Armenia is not ready for the orange revolution that took place in Ukraine and Georgia," Kaskin, the expert of the Eurasian Center of the Strategic Studies said to Trend on a telephone from Ankara on 3 March.
The Iranian expert Hasan Shariatmadari said that the government in Armenia cannot be overthrown which related with Russia and it is impossible to hold independent elections in the country. According to the expert, the re-run of independent elections in Armenia is inevitable. "If United States supports the opposition which is under Russian influence indirectlyand pressure from the opposition to the government will be consistent, the re-run of the elections with the participation of international experts may be the final way out of the tension," Shariatmadari said to Trend on 3 March on a telephone from Berlin.
Azerbaijani expert Rasim Musabayov said that the latest developments in Armenia simply are the wish of the government to draw out its existence by false means. "There is no secret context here," Musabayov said to Trend on 3 March. Concerning the possibility of the orange revolution in Armenia, Musabayov said that there are already 8 dead in Armenia, but the orange revolution is the peaceful replacement of the current regime.
Ramaz Sakvarelidzeh, the Georgian political scientist said that the confrontations that took place in Armenian society were at its peak within the last few days. "The people are dissatisfied with the political elite. On top of it all the Armenian Diaspora, who have a strong influence on the Armenian society also expressed their dissatisfaction," Sakarelidzeh said to Trend in Tbilisi on 3 March.
In this case if the government will not take serious measures, the confrontations will cause further aggravation, he said. "However I do not think that the conflict will erupt into armed confrontation and civil conflict the expert said. "The developments in Armenia are less likely to have an impact on regional security," Sakarelidzeh said.
There have been opposition demonstrations and sit-down strikes in Yerevan since 20 February. Organizers of the demonstrations are dissatisfied with the outcome of the presidential elections held on 19 February announced by the Central Election Commission. Serj Sarkisyan, the candidate from the government and prime minister won the elections by polling 52% of the votes. Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the former president of Armenia came second in the elections with 21.5% of the votes