Tomoyuki Hashimoto, London School of Economics and Pol. Sci. World Association of International Studies, especially for Trend
On my last article (7 August 2008 http://news.trend.az/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1264438&lang=EN), I emphasized the necessity for Georgia to open a new set of diplomatic dialog with Russia regarding the South Ossetian conflict. Earlier today (8 August 2008), the Georgian military launched a major offensive operation to the capital, Tskhinvali with aircraft and heavy artillery. I must re-emphasize my previous statement: Georgia must commit into diplomacy as soon as possible because the international public seems not to be with Georgia.
The Associated Press and other news agencies have released the most updated
news from Georgia today, stating that the military moved forward to
"retake" South Ossetia. Regardless of the possible bombing by the
Russian Air Force, all news in the world so far focused on the fact that the
Georgian military
launched the OFFENSIVE action hours AFTER the unilateral cease fire declaration
by Tbilisi. Even though the action by Georgia could have been a part of
retaliation, this sudden military move was a bad PR for the
international public. As the public in Europe and the US is not as informed as the public in the region, the public in Europe and the US will think that Georgia is "dangerous," "unstable," and "backward."
The recent effort of Tbilisi to push forward the Georgian membership in NATO
and the EU may fall into deadlock if this military action continues. Tbilisi, by today's action, lost a lot of sympathy from out-of-area countries.
As I stated in my last article, the US and Europe will not take any immediate actions. As a matter of fact, the United Nations Security Council this morning (8 August) failed to reach any conclusion whatsoever regarding this issue. The Georgian-Ossetian conflict was used in a big balancing game between the US and Russia. Moreover, the fact that many Ossetians allegedly have the Russian citizenship gives Russia some degree of legitimacy in the control of the situation. In fact, one Russian is enough for Moscow to intervene militarily. On the other hand, as the US public is against any further military actions at this moment, a hundred Americans are not enough to bring the US into the battle.
Tbilisi should stop the fire regardless of any justification or legitimacy. Tbilisi now could use the Olympic cease fire (traditionally, any military conflicts are halted a week before and during the Olympic games) to obtain the grip on the further negotiation. At this point, the international public or news agencies are not with Georgia. They focus only on the fact that some civil-war-like conflict took place in Georgia. The public is tired of all wars because of Iraq. If Tbilisi is looking forward to join NATO or the EU in the near future, the international public and its sympathy towards Tbilisi is probably more important than chaotic territories Tbilisi "retook" this morning.