Trend Middle East Desk Head, Rufiz Hafizoglu
The "People's Revolution" in Tunisia, a traditionally passive country from a political point of view, and the most secular country in the Arab world, was a surprise.
Many political analysts thought that such a revolution could have happened in Egypt, which is considered to be the "Mother of the Arab World," but not Tunisia. Egypt is more active from a political point of view.
The political and economic situation in Egypt is more intolerable than in all Arab countries, without exception.
After President Habib Bourguiba left his post in 1987 and Ben Ali took office, not only Islamic, but secular opposition, failed in the country.
However, Ben Ali began to conduct radical "reforms" in the country. Such reforms were the closing of NGO, suppressing the political activity of youth, the concentration of all economic resources in Ben Ali and his family's hands, and in social terms, rapid replacement of the middle class by the poor class. As a result, the reforms turned Tunisia into the personal possession of Ben Ali and his family, but not the Tunisians.
There is no doubt that the people's revolution in Tunisia will have an impact on other Arab countries, particularly on Egypt, Algeria, Libya and other Arab countries holding the last positions in the field of democracy and human rights.
That is why the first reaction to the revolution in Tunisia came from officials of the above-mentioned countries. Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi, always distinguished by his inadequacy, said that the Tunisians will not be able to find a better head than Ben Ali. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said that he respected the choice of the Tunisians.
In an interview with the Egyptian media, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit said that the revolution in Tunisia will not affect the countries of the region.
However, very serious moments escaped people's attention amid the current situation.
Despite the statements by the government of Tunisia that the Islamist forces and, in particular, the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, are behind the current situation in the country, neither Islamists, nor al-Qaeda played a role in the course of these events. In fact, the lack of Islamist forces in the revolution was perfect for the coup because even a slight intervention of Islamists in this issue could completely change the course of events.
The reason for the coup, which suddenly occurred after 23 years, is not political and religious. The reason was the protests occurred after a Tunisian mobile trader with a higher education burned himself. The young man made it in a sign of protest because his truck was broken.
After the collapse of Ben Ali's regime, whose name appeared in a number of corruption cases, the protests began in neighboring Arab countries for similar reasons. An Egyptian burned himself in Cairo on Monday in front of the Parliament in a sign of protest against the government.
This course of events stipulates that the people's revolution from Tunisia may spread, primarily to Egypt in the nearest future.
On the other hand, the factor of Islamist and reformist Muslim Brotherhood does not exclude the possibility of revolution in Egypt.
However, it is known that despite the force of the Islamic factor in Egypt, the Islamists will not be active in a hypothetical coup because intervention of Egyptian Islamists in one or another form in the course of events will make the attempted coup vain. The current regime skillfully uses the "Islamist-terrorist" factor to maintain its legitimacy.
As opposed to Tunisia, the revolution in Egypt will disturb the entire Arab world and cause new geopolitical changes in the region.
Naturally, besides influencing the internal politics of the country, this revolution will reconsider the relations between Egypt and many countries, including Israel.
Changing the current regime in Egypt or any other Arab country, without exception, sooner or later will lead to the Islamization of the population.
Today. the Arab world faces a great test of democracy in the face of Tunisia. Time will tell whether totalitarian regimes will be replaced by democratic systems.