BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 4. Over the coming decade, there is an expected increase in global gas demand, which is anticipated to lead to a 12.5-percent boost in production from 2023 to 2030, Trend reports.
Rystad Energy, independent energy research and business intelligence company from Norway, forecasts that even in scenarios where global temperatures rise by 1.9 to 2.5 degrees Celsius, coupled with rapid growth in renewable energy sources, the existing gas fields will be insufficient to meet the worldwide demand.
This shortfall will necessitate a swift expansion of unconventional gas sources, the company said. Regions rich in natural gas, such as the Middle East, particularly in areas like the Rub al Khali basin, will play a crucial role in filling this gap. It is estimated that they will provide around 20 million tons per annum (tpa) of LNG by the year 2040.
According to Rystad Energy, thanks to technological advancements and reduced lead times, unconventional gas production, including shale, has seen a swift expansion in recent years. This rapid expansion has accelerated the global contribution of unconventional gas to the overall gas production, achieving milestones that previously would have taken much longer to reach. Specifically, it has surged from 4 percent in 2000 to 12 percent in 2022, and is projected to reach 35 percent in 2023.
At the same time, by 2030, unconventional gas is poised to surpass a 30-percent share in global production, the company forecasts. This anticipated rise in unconventional production is chiefly attributed to a decline in exploration success throughout the past decade and the absence of fully developed conventional gas projects. This trend indicates an overall reduction in conventional gas supply.