BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. Global natural gas trade may grow by almost 15 percent between 2022 and 2030, as indicated in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), Trend reports.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), based on the STEPS scenario, this is half the growth rate observed in the previous decade but more than four times higher than the growth in overall natural gas demand until 2030.
By 2030, two-thirds of globally traded natural gas is transported as LNG in the STEPS, up from approximately 50 percent in 2021.
At the same time, trade also remains resilient in Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) until 2030, with total exports in 2030 surpassing their 2022 level by 20 bcm in the APS, and falling below it by 90 bcm in the NZE.
As the IEA noted, the US, responsible for approving over 90 percent of LNG export projects since the beginning of 2022, solidifies its status as the world's leading gas exporter in all scenarios until 2030.
Although gas exports also rise in the Middle East, particularly from Qatar, most of the additional production in the region until 2030 is directed toward meeting domestic demand, the agency noted.
Russia, on the other hand, fails to regain its pre-2022 levels of total gas exports in any of the scenarios. In the STEPS, exports fall by another 20 percent by 2030, as increased deliveries to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline and modest growth in LNG exports are counterbalanced by further declines in pipeline exports to Europe. In the APS, lower gas demand growth in China and a global surplus of LNG result in Russia having limited opportunities to diversify into non-European markets, leading to a 25% decline in total exports by 2030.
By 2030, Mozambique emerges as a significant exporter, but in the STEPS, Africa's overall gas trade balance declines due to reduced LNG exports from West Africa and a higher proportion of North African gas production serving domestic demand. In the APS, a lack of buyers committing to new, long-lead export projects leads to African exports falling one-third below 2022 levels by 2050.
Since natural gas demand peaks in all scenarios by 2030, there is limited room for either pipeline or LNG trade to expand beyond that point. With approximately 650 bcm of annual liquefaction capacity currently operational and another 250 bcm under construction, the global LNG markets appear well-supplied in the STEPS at least until 2040. In the APS, LNG demand peaks by 2030, and the projects under construction are sufficient to meet this demand. In the NZE Scenario, a global supply surplus emerges in the mid-2020s, rendering under-construction projects no longer necessary.