BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 15. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that in 2025, OECD refinery crude runs will be slightly lower than in 2024, totaling 35.8 mb/d, a decrease of 300,000 b/d, Trend reports.
As the agency explains, this dip is mainly due to reduced throughput in Europe and Asia Oceania, although it's partly balanced by higher forecasts in the Americas.
This trend reflects the challenges faced by higher-cost operations, driven by declining regional demand and planned capacity closures. Europe is anticipated to lose around 350,000 b/d of crude processing capacity next year with the closure of the Grangemouth and Wesseling plants.
Conversely, crude runs in the OECD Americas are expected to increase by 60,000 b/d year-on-year in 2025, primarily due to higher Mexican throughputs, the IEA noted. Pemex’s Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas is expected to commence commercial operations early in 2025, with the possibility of an earlier start-up.
However, the closure of LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery in spring 2025 will reduce US Gulf Coast capacity by 260,000 b/d, leading to a similar decrease in US throughputs, according to IEA estimates.