BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.12
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
OPEC+ will not implement further production cuts to accommodate any potential increases in oil output from Iran or Venezuela, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
EIA notes that OPEC crude oil production averaged 26.3 million b/d in 2021, up 0.7 million b/d from 2020.
“We forecast that average OPEC crude oil production will increase by an additional 2.5 million b/d to average 28.8 million b/d in 2022 and then average 28.9 million b/d in 2023. Our OPEC crude oil production forecast is subject to considerable uncertainty, driven both by country compliance with existing production targets and uncertain future global demand growth,” reads the latest EIA report.
EIA believes that even with increased OPEC crude oil production, remaining surplus production capacity will be more than sufficient to meet additional demand even if consumption exceeds its expectations.
“We expect that OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity will decline from 6.0 million b/d in 2021 to average 3.9 million b/d in both 2022 and 2023, compared with an average surplus capacity of 2.2 million b/d from 2010–19. These estimates do not include additional capacity in Iran that is offline because of U.S. sanctions. Among the OPEC countries, Iran, Libya, and Venezuela are not subject to production targets in the OPEC+ agreement. EIA forecast assumes current U.S. sanctions remain in place for Iran and Venezuela for the entire forecast period,” the report says.
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