BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 8. Gas demand is expected to undergo significant changes in two contrasting scenarios: Walls and Bridges proposed by Norway’s Equinor, Trend reports.
In the Walls scenario, which builds upon current energy market trends and policies, gas demand is projected to continue growing, reaching its peak in 2039. By 2050, gas demand is estimated to be approximately 10 percent higher than the current level. On the other hand, in the Bridges scenario, gas demand reaches its peak much earlier, in 2025, and then experiences a sharp decline. By 2050, gas demand in the Bridges scenario is expected to fall to roughly a third of today's level.
These scenarios are based on different assumptions regarding energy and climate policies. The Walls scenario assumes that climate action will progress at a gradually accelerating pace in the future, while the Bridges scenario aligns with a normative back-cast aimed at complying with the 1.5°C carbon budget. Achieving the goals of the Bridges scenario requires significant and sustained efforts.
As the world moves forward, energy efficiency becomes increasingly important. Historical data from 1990 to 2020 demonstrates an improvement in energy intensity of 1.2 percent per year. Looking ahead, the Walls scenario anticipates a decline in energy intensity of 1.9 percent per year, while the Bridges scenario expects a more rapid decline of 3.2 percent per year. The key enabler of this shift is electrification.
Both scenarios project a peak in fossil fuel demand occurring before 2030. In the Walls scenario, the peak is forecasted to transpire in 2026, followed by a gradual decline. In contrast, the Bridges scenario anticipates a swift decline in fossil fuel demand after 2025. By 2050, all remaining fossil fuel use is either fully abated or compensated by carbon removal techniques.
Furthermore, there is a notable shift in energy consumption towards electricity. In the Walls scenario, the electrification trend steadily accelerates, with electricity's share increasing by half towards 2050. However, the Bridges scenario exhibits a much more substantial acceleration in electrification before 2030. By 2050, the share of electricity in the energy mix surpasses 50 percent, reaching two and a half times its current size.
These scenarios emphasize the dynamic nature of the global energy landscape and highlight the need for strategic planning and transformative measures to address the challenges of climate change while meeting the world's energy requirements.
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