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EBRD revises forecast for Kyrgyzstan's GDP

Kyrgyzstan Materials 27 September 2023 17:25 (UTC +04:00)
Abdullo Janob
Abdullo Janob
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BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan, September 27. The European Development Bank (EBRD) has revised its forecast for Kyrgyzstan's GDP growth rate in 2023, lowering it to 4.6 percent, Trend reports.

This is a 2.4 percent reduction from the EBRD’s previous forecast in May 2023. Additionally, the bank has slightly adjusted its 2024 forecast, lowering it by 0.2 percent to 7 percent.

During the first seven months of 2023, Kyrgyzstan's economy experienced slow growth, with a GDP growth rate of 2.9 percent. This timid dynamic was primarily attributed to a decrease in the production of base metals, notably gold, which accounts for over 58 percent of the country's manufacturing output. The agricultural sector also recorded a decline of 1.7 percent year-on-year.

In contrast, the textile industry experienced growth, and the notable expansion of the tourism sector led to increased food production, along with increased activity in hotels, restaurants, and retail and wholesale trade. The country's trade turnover also registered a significant increase from January through June 2023, with exports up by 34.3 percent and imports up by 30.3 percent year-on-year.

EBRD analysts believe that while there is potential for economic growth from sudden trade gains, concerns remain regarding water shortages and secondary sanctions on Kyrgyzstan.

Earlier this month, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also revised its forecast for Kyrgyzstan's GDP growth rate in 2023, down to 3.8 percent. However, ADB maintained its forecast for the GDP growth rate in 2024 at 4 percent.

In 2022, Kyrgyzstan achieved a GDP growth rate of 7 percent, with the total value reaching 919 billion soms ($10 billion).

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