The likelihood of agreement on Iran's nuclear program is high enough
Baku, Azerbaijan, May 18
By Elena Kosolapova - Trend: The likelihood of reaching an agreement on Iran's nuclear program between Iran and the P5+1 is quite high, US analyst believes.
"I assess the likelihood of finalizing the nuclear deal at about 80 percent," senior analyst at the Congressional Research Service, which conducts research and analysis for the US Congress Kenneth Katzman told Trend.
He stressed that both the United States and Iran have strong incentives to complete the deal. Iran is particularly interested in such a deal because it is suffering severe economic problems because of the extensive US and international sanctions, Katzman said.
The expert expects that if there is a nuclear deal, many of the sanctions will be suspended some time in the fall of 2015 after Iran completes some key nuclear tasks such as dismantling 15,000 centrifuges.
Moreover Katzman said that if the parties agree, Iranian oil will probably resume exportation to Europe in the latter part of 2015, after the EU lifts the ban on Iranian oil and gas imports it imposed in 2012. Iranian oil supplies to Europe could start without need for Iran to increase its oil production, according to the expert. Iran has stored a great amount of oil, which can start flowing fairly soon after sanctions are lifted, he said.
Iran and the P5+1, which includes the US, France, the UK, Russia, China plus Germany, should conclude a final nuclear accord by June 30. The parties reached a framework agreement in early April.
Edited by CN
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