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Resuming JCPOA in Iran considered impossible, experts claim

Nuclear Program Materials 30 May 2023 16:50 (UTC +04:00)
Resuming JCPOA in Iran considered impossible, experts claim
Elnur Baghishov
Elnur Baghishov
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 30. A number of Iranian news outlets believe that it is impossible to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by Iran with the 5+1 group (the US, the UK, France, Russia, China and Germany), Trend reports.

In particular, some newspapers in Iran believe that restoring the JCPOA is impossible, other consider alternative options.

During the past 4 years, the development of Iran's nuclear program has been proposed by those who believe that the restoration of the JCPOA is not possible.

According to the experts, taking into account the development of Iran in the nuclear field, the important achievement of the US - i.e. 1-year formation against nuclear evasion will not be repeated anymore, and according to the mechanism related to the JCPOA, formation against nuclear evasion will be possible in just 3 months.

Among the challenges that the West is facing, according to them, is expiration of sanctions related to Iran's missile development and nuclear program in October 2023 and 2025, respectively. In such a situation, the current US administration uses different expressions regarding Iran's nuclear program. These statements are: “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is not on the agenda; But the problem can be solved only diplomatically."

It is clear that if the US opts for the "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action", then there is no guarantee that the "No Crisis" option will not be considered.

The newspapers claim that in this case, the problem of increasing the uranium enrichment rate in Iran may get out of control. At the same time, the US and Western countries are talking about the idea of a "temporary agreement", which Iran has not yet agreed to.

Iran's continued rhetoric about its willingness to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and its efforts to increase its nuclear capabilities is putting pressure on the West. At the same time, in the absence of dialogue, undesirable consequences are possible, the experts say.

In January 2016, JCPOA was launched between Iran and the P5+1 group (US, Russia, China, UK, France, and Germany) in connection with Iran's nuclear program. In May 2018, the US announced its withdrawal from the deal and imposed sanctions on Iran in November of the same year. To preserve the agreements reached as part of the JCPOA, the European signatories of the deal started in January 2019 that a financial mechanism for maintaining trade with Iran called INSTEX was formed.

On May 8, 2019, Iran announced that it had ceased fulfilling its commitments regarding the sale of over 300 kilograms of uranium, as stated in the deal, basing its decision on the other signatories that have not fulfilled their obligations. On July 7, Iran announced that it will not be fulfilling its commitments regarding the enrichment of uranium at 3.67 percent and the reconstruction of the Arak Heavy Water Reactor Facility as stated in the deal.

Iran announced that it will enrich uranium using next-generation centrifuges and will not mix it with the enriched uranium residues as part of the third step of reducing commitments in JCPOA on Sept.5. On Nov. 5, 2019, Iran announced that it took the fourth step in connection with reducing its commitments to the nuclear agreement. So, uranium gas is being pumped to the centrifuges at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.

On Jan.2020, Iran took the last fifth step in reducing the number of its commitments within JCPOA.

On May 8, 2018, the US announced its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the 5+1 group (Russia, China, the UK, France, the US, and Germany), and imposed new sanctions against Iran as of November 2018.

Over the past period, the sanctions affected Iranian oil exports, more than 700 banks, companies, and individuals. The sanctions have resulted in the freezing of Iranian assets abroad.

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