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General economic situation

Analysis Materials 13 September 2007 12:01 (UTC +04:00)

In January to July 2007 the GDP grew 34.5% and made up 12.739.7mln AZN at current prices. The growth pace turned out 0.6% less than 2006.

Major factor causing drop in the economic growth was the sharp fall in industry. In January to June the industrial production and services of industrial character rose 34.7% and comprised AZN 10.727.5mln. Last year the figure was 41.4%.

The drop is explained with 1.3%-cut in production in the state sector, which is linked with the cessation of manufacturing at chemical enterprises due to rise in prices of energy resources (drop in production was by 46.2%). It was linked with the cut in chemical output and electricity, gas and water production (by 5.5%). Special weight of production in the public sector and services comprised only 21.6%.

Meanwhile, the output of oil production and oil refinery plants exceeded the volume fixed January to July 2007 by 42.1%. The oil production rose 44.1% and made up 24.807mln tons, while gas production - 5.465.2mln cu m with a rise by 42.2%.

Moreover, rise was observed in the production of plastic and rubber wares by 52.1%, machine and equipment by 88.4%, transport means by 2.1 times, production of wood and wooden wares by 21.8%, foodstuff by 11.9%, non-metallic mineral substances 15.2%.

In January to July 2007 growth rate in agrarian industry rose as compared to last year. So, the output increased by 2.7% against 0.3% in 2006.

The investments put in major capital rose inconsiderably. A total of AZN 3.318.7mln was invested in economy at the expense of all sources, which is 11.3% up as compared to 2006 when it was 12.9%. The major reason for rise in investments is growth in demand by the construction of industrial facilities in this sector, where 2.766.3mln, or 83.4% of all investments was spent.

Thus, growth rate of consumer demand continue drop. The turnover of retail good turnover rose 14.6%, while the community services grew 32.7%. The growth rate of commercial services increased, while in the retail goods turnover fell, as it seems on the results of 2006, when the rise comprised 12.5% and 37.3% respectively

Major part of demand was satisfied at the expense of import, which grew by 10.03% and comprised $2.870.479mln. The volume of import made up $3.395.906mln, or 3.19% less as compared to last year. The foreign trade ended in balance with $525,426mln in black.

Major reason for rise in import operations was increase in the amount of import of transport conveyances and spare parts for them, furniture, pharmceurics, food products, ferrous metal and ware of it, machines and electric appliances, electro-technical equipment and spare parts

Value Added Price In bn manats Special weight, in % Real rise, in %
GDP in total 12 739,7 100,0 134,5
production of goods 9288,3 72,9 144,2
including - industry  7801,4  61,2  153,3
- agriculture 603,9 4,7 102,7
- construction 883,0 7,0 107,4
Production of services 2483,3 19,5 111,6
Including: - transport  655,7  5,1  116,3
- communications 207,9 1,6 119,5
- trade and repair 722,5 5,7 114,6
- hotels and restaurants 85,9 0,7 123,0
- social and different services 811,3 6,4 103,1
Net taxes on products 968,1 7,6 108,9
Defliator 101,1  

Sources: State Statistics Committee, calculations by Trend

In January to July 2007, the growth rate of prices on consumer goods and tariffs on services went up by 15.3%. According to the State Statistics Committee, in this period the price on food products increased by 13.2%, non-food products - 10.6%, whereas tariffs on services rose 26.7%.

The State Committee fixed in July 2007 that prices of bakery rose 9.1%, mineral water, juices, and cool drinks - 0.6%, tea and coffee - 0.4%, beer - 1.2%, alcohol drinks - 1.1%, oil and fats - 1.3%, dairy, cheese, and eggs 0.3%, fish - 0.3%. However, prices of vegetables fell 9.1%, fish by 3.8%.

As a result of January to July net incomes of the population rose 39.1%, and comprised AZN 7.026.1mln. The net incomes dropped 19% as compared to last year.

Major tendency at the fiscal market was the consolidation of manat rates with respect to dollar. A tendency on increase of rates, observed over the past period, reflects the real state and is linked with increase of oil revenues in the country.

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