Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 2
By Farhad Daneshvar – Trend:
The recent political unrests in Iran seem to bring the country to the brink of chaos, but the outcome of the ongoing protests is still under the question.
Lack of a charismatic leader and serious alternative for the administration as well as fears over the appearance of extremist groups appear as the main shortcomings of the latest round of anti-government demonstrations in Iran, discouraging a large number of people to join the rallies.
Despite President Hassan Rouhani’s efforts to calm down angry and emotional protesters, the unrests continued into Tuesday, leaving at least nine killed over the last night across the country.
“People have points regarding the livelihood problems, corruption, and lack of transparency in the performance of some institutions. They want more relaxed atmosphere… the demands of the people must be taken into account,” the president tweeted on Monday in a move aimed at easing the emotional atmosphere.
The death toll of the unrests in the country has reportedly surpassed 20 and hundreds of protesters have been detained, but no one has a clear view of how the ongoing developments would impact the political landscape of the Middle Eastern nation.
Over the past five days, some groups of people joined demonstrations in a number of cities, including the capital Tehran, Mashhad and Kermanshah to protest against high prices, but the economic protests soon turned into anti-government demonstrations.
Although many commentators have already speculated about the roots of the recent developments and their possible outcomes, it still appears tough to accurately talk about the main force behind the movement.
Whatever the possible outcome of the protests could be, the lack of a clear leadership seems to weaken their impact.
On the other hand a group of protesters have targeted overthrowing the establishment, but the lack of a credible alternative for the current establishment appears as a main factor lessening the effectiveness of the attempts.
This is while fears over the possible emergence of extremist groups in case of undermined security still exists, causing a large number of citizens and even political dissidents to remain vigilant about the disastrous results of uncalculated political movements.
Maybe that is why President Rouhani has, so far, avoided temptations to appeal to the elite IRGC force for putting down the unrest, an indication of his strong will to rule out the possibility of any bloody suppression.
In the current situation if the unrest continues to worsen and turns into the real chaos, no peaceful transmission of power is possible, but national dialogue and taking serious measures aimed at tackling corruption and improving the economic life of ordinary people could help the country climb out of the crisis.
The continuation of the chaos would definitely lead to further domestic restrictions and jeopardize the hopes for carrying out reforms in the society, which would eventually fuel more western-imposed sanctions on the nation over the situation of human rights, putting the nation under a greater economic pressure.
Finally, to imagine the catastrophic failure of uncalculated political moves, it is enough to have a look at the fate of the regional nations who attempted to establish justice in their countries through chaos.
No need to remind that those who wanted to set the Iraqi people free and secure them from the “evil” of Saddam Hussein fell victims to sectarian violence.
However, the elite ruling system in Iran should expect greater unrests if it refuses to carry out immediate reforms and fulfill its promises to ensure justice in the Iranian society.