BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.11
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global natural gas production is expected to grow by 24 percent to 4,857 Bcm in 2040, with most additions coming from North America (+410 Bcm versus 2020 production), followed by Russia (+190 Bcm) and the Middle East (+185 Bcm), Trend reports citing Rystad Energy.
“US natural gas production could reach 1,194 Bcm in 2040, driven by output from Marcellus and the Permian. Shale production is however at risk due to the new government. Russia, Iran and Qatar can contribute with substantial output. Europe will be the only region to decline (-74 Bcm) due to lower production from Norway and the Netherlands,” the company said in its latest report.
Rystad Energy believes that global natural gas demand is set to increase through 2040 by 26 percent to a monstrous 4,867 Bcm, with Asian demand being by far the largest addition (+537 Bcm versus 2020), as gas is needed to power the region despite growth in renewables.
“Environmental policies in Europe and growth in renewables will lead to a decline in demand from 2024, with the total demand losses on the continent to reach 43 Bcm in 2040, compared to 2020 demand. US demand is also at risk due to new environmental policies expected to be announced by the Biden administration,” said the company.
The world’s LNG production is expected to reach 672 Mt in 2040, a 79 percent growth from 2020 numbers, reads the report.
“A spectacular rise in LNG production in the US is expected (+203 Mt for the whole of North America) as gas production grows but domestic demand growth is limited. Qatar will continue to be a key LNG player driving Middle Eastern exports, while Mozambique will help put Africa back on the LNG map. However, more LNG production is needed to keep up with demand.”
Eurogas, an association representing the European gas wholesale, retail and distribution sectors, told Trend that the European gas industry is going through a major transition.
“Achieving the EU’s ambition of a carbon neutral economy by 2050 requires a fundamental restructuring of our energy system. This includes coupling the electricity and the gas systems, integrating them with other economic sectors, while supporting Europe’s industrial competitiveness and citizens’ prosperity,” said the association.
Eurogas believes that the gas industry is committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, but this won’t be possible without decarbonising the molecule.
“Switching from coal to gas in power generation, replacing inefficient oil and coal heaters with gas, using LNG in marine transport and for goods vehicles will significantly contribute to meeting the EU’s increased emissions reduction target by 2030. Further down the line, the deployment of biogas, biomethane and hydrogen will be indispensable for meeting the 2050 targets. This is what many gas companies are working on."
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