DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, May 24. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted that Tajikistan's real GDP growth would reach 7 percent in 2025, with a slight decline to 5.7 percent in 2026, Trend reports.
Tajikistan's economy continued its solid growth in 2024, supported by positive contributions from agriculture, industry, and services. Investment remains strong, bolstered by the ongoing construction of the Rogun dam and other major infrastructure projects. Consumption is also robust, underpinned by sustained remittance inflows and rapid credit expansion, although from a low base.
Inflation has remained low and stable compared to regional peers, at 3.7 percent in February 2025. The country’s current account surplus widened to 6.1 percent of GDP in 2024, as strong remittance inflows more than offset the growing trade deficit. Additionally, Tajikistan’s international reserves were boosted by the continued monetization of previously acquired gold, now covering over seven months of imports, according to IMF estimates.
Tajikistan's fiscal policy remains aligned with the targets set under the IMF’s Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) programme, ensuring financial stability. However, the potential slowdown in China, which accounted for around 14 percent of Tajikistan’s goods exports in 2022, along with other key trading partners, could moderately affect the country’s growth prospects.
The EBRD projects that Tajikistan's economy will continue to benefit from ongoing infrastructure investments and remittance inflows, supporting a strong growth outlook in the coming years.