Turkey's decision to give the go-ahead for Iran's participation in planned international talks on Syria is a welcome development, given that that Iran is a major actor in the civil war in Syria, say analysts Today`s Zaman reported.
"This is the right decision," said Yashar Yakısh, who is a former minister of foreign affairs and current president of the Ankara-based Center for Strategic Communication (STRATİM).
All three analysts who spoke to Today's Zaman find the involvement of Iran in the Geneva talks essential, as it's, being a staunch supporter of the Bashar al-Assad regime, is a major stakeholder in the crisis. "If a formula under which Iran could also put its signature is developed, then the Syrian crisis would get resolved much more easily," Yakısh said, noting that Iran could attempt to undermine formulas for peace that are produced without its involvement.
"We are not opposing any side," diplomatic sources earlier told Today's Zaman in regards to Iran's participation, which Russia strongly favors. Ankara has not said who the participants of the conference should be at the second Geneva meeting, but has emphasized that the important thing is the parameters of the conference. "If it [Iran] accepts those parameters, then we will take its participation into consideration," diplomatic sources said.
The second Geneva meeting, which will reportedly take place in early June, comes one year after the first Geneva meeting. As opposed to the previous one, representatives of the Syrian government and opposition, possibly together with Iran, will be, if all sides agree, invited to the conference.
The Geneva conference aims for the establishment of a transition government in Syria that would lead the country, after the civil war comes to an end, to democracy. In a recent interview Assad gave to the Argentinian press, the Syrian president gave the impression that he doesn't attach great importance to the Geneva, saying that it's the Syrian people who will decide the future of Syria. Assad also said his political future must be decided in the presidential election to be held next year, and not at such a conference.
Turkey, which had formerly described the Geneva process as a waste of time, has seemingly changed its mind after the US and Russia recently agreed to hold the conference in order to try and produce a peaceful solution to the crisis. Gokhan Bacık, head of the Middle East Strategic Research Center at Gaziantep's Zirve University, says, "Ankara has taken the correct position," on Iran. Because, he argued, while it's Russia that offers protection to Syria on international platforms, Iran is the country that provides war-torn Syria aid in terms of money, arms and fighters. Noting that Iran is part of the problem in Syria, "It's useful that Iran is included in the [Geneva] process," said Bacık, who is also a columnist for Today's Zaman, noting that Iran is part of the problem in Syria.
While Moscow backs Iran's participation in the meeting, France has opposed it, saying on Friday that it's against a Syria peace conference in which Assad's regional ally Iran would also be invited. Washington's position on Iran's involvement in the Geneva talks has not yet been announced, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Thursday that Iran must take part in the proposed international conference in Geneva, calling the country an important actor in the talks.
Although analysts are not very hopeful that the Geneva talks will bear fruit, they, however, see the Geneva process as the only genuine opportunity for peace, considering that hopefully all sides of the problem and members of the UN Security Council will be present at the table. "If a resolution [to the conflict in Syria] could ever be reached, Geneva is the place where that could be obtained," Yakısh commented, stressing that, in the Syrian crisis, only a resolution to which the US, Russia and, to a certain degree, Iran would give support is possible.
Although the US and Turkey agreed during Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent visit in Washington that Assad should leave power, Russia and Iran will surely throw their weight around for a transition period in Syria in which not only some cadres of the Ba'ath Party, but also Assad would be included.
"Russia wants to make Assad part of the resolution," commented Yakısh, who believes Turkey should not oppose a transition period for Assad, given that Turkey has, in an effort to settle the country's Kurdish issue, even conducted talks with the head of a terrorist organization. Yakısh is of the opinion that Russia may try to convince Assad not to run for presidential elections next year.
Bacık believes the crisis in Syria could be resolved by allowing warring sides to keep control in the areas they are presently established in, with UN peace keeping forces standing guard on some buffer zones to prevent clashes between the opposition forces and the Syrian army. "For such an arrangement to take place, Iran also needs to be at the table," Bacık maintained, noting that Iran is a major player in the crisis.
Birol Akgun, head of the international relations department at Necmettin Erbakan University, also believes having Iran at the table is a good idea. "Engaging Iran in order to find a resolution is the right decision," he told Today's Zaman. This may, according to Akgun, who is not very hopeful that the Geneva conference will produce results, also allow everybody to see the limits of engaging in negotiations. He says he believes the international community will see in the end that nothing substantial can be achieved in Syria through negotiations, as Assad won't agree to leave power.
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