OPEC expects global oil demand growth at 0.8 mln bpd in 2012 and 2013

Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 11 / Trend A. Badalova /

World oil demand will continue to grow during 2013 and will reach 89.6 million barrels per day (bpd), which is 0.8 million bpd more than demand in 2012, OPEC's October oil market report, published on Thursday, said.

"World oil demand growth for next year is subject to considerable uncertainty, due primarily to the on-going challenges in the world economy," the report said. Hence, the forecast oil demand growth has a downside risk, especially in the first half of the year, OPEC believes. According to the report, the risk is attributed not only to OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) but also to China and India as well.

According to OPEC's forecasts, oil demand in OECD countries next year is expected to decrease by 0.17 mln bpd to 45.44 mln bpd.

Developing countries' oil demand is expected to increase by 0.51 mln bpd to average 28.9 mln bpd in 2013.

OPEC expects global oil demand at 88.81 million bpd in 2012, which 0.77 million bpd more that in 2011.

Oil demand in OECD countries is expected at 45.6 million bpd this year.

OPEC supply

According to the report, OPEC oil production decreased by 265,000 bpd to 31.08 million bpd in September, 2012.

OPEC crude oil production, not including Iraq, averaged 27.95 million bpd in September, a decline of 276,000 bpd from August.

"Crude output of Angola, Nigeria, and Venezuela experienced declines in September, compared to the previous month, while crude production from Saudi Arabia and Libya showed increases," report said.

According to the estimates, Libyan production amounted to 1,485 million bpd in Septmebre, Iraqi oil production amounted to 3,129 million bpd.

Non-OPEC supply

According to the forecasts, non-OPEC supply will increase by 0.56 mln bpd and average 53 mln. bpd in 2012. This represents a downward revision of 0.15 million bpd from the previous report.

According to OPEC forecasts, oil supplies by OECD countries will increase by 0.74 mln bpd to 20.88 mln bpd in 2012.

Oil production in the U.S. is projected at 16.46 mln bpd in 2012 compared to 15.5 mln bpd in 2011.

According to the OPEC forecasts, the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) will supply 13.3 mln bpd in 2012 or 0.07 mln bpd more than in 2011.

OPEC expects Middle East oil supply to decline by 0.16 mln bpd to 1.54 mln bpd in 2012.

According to the forecasts, non-OPEC supply will increase by 0.89 million bpd to 53.89 million bpd in 2013. OECD countries will supply 21.22 million bpd next year.

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