Western analysts' short-term forecasts: World oil prices to rise slightly

Oil&Gas Materials 9 March 2010 16:05 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, March 9 / Trend A.Badalova /

Earlier this week oil prices on the world markets established a mark above $80 per barrel, which is the maximum level for the past two months.

April futures for Brent branched oil at the London Exchange increased by $0.58 to $80.47 per barrel. April futures for WTI oil at the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.37 to $81.87 per barrel.

In the short term, the Western analysts expect growth in world oil prices, though marginal.

Analysts of JPMorgan increased their forecasts on oil process this year. In accordance with new forecasts, WTI and Brent prices will reach $83.5 per barrel this year compared to $78.2 predicted earlier. In 2011 analysts predict the oil prices to increase to $90 per barrel. The bank expects the oil prices to reach $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Based on the forecasts of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), WTI prices will hit $81 per barrel in 2010, and rise to $84 per barrel in 2011.

Analysts of US investment bank Goldman Sachs also raised their forecast on oil prices. The bank predict WTI prices at $85- $90 per barrel in 2010.

Meanwhile, analysts Morgan Stanley have changed their forecasts on oil prices, urging that WTI branded oil price will attain $95 per barrel by the end of 2010 and $100 per barrel in average in 2011.

However, not all analysts are waiting increase in world oil prices in the short-term. Thus, analysts of Deutsche Bank expect fall by the end of 2010 (fourth quarter) to $60 per barrel or even lower. The main reason for the fall, in their opinion, the proposal will be high and relatively low demand for oil.

Analysts of Capital Economics, one of the leading British consulting companies on economic researches expects expect the oil prices to drop to $50 per barrel by the end of 2010  as far as drop of the temps of the world economy recovery. They forecast Brent price at $70 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $60 per barrel in the third and $50 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Average price of this brand of oil will constitute $50 per barrel in 2011, the analysts urge.




83.5 (W, B)

90 (IV quarter) (W, B)

90 (W, B)


81 (2nd half ) (W)

84 (W)

Goldman Sachs

85-90 (W)


Morgan Stanley

95 (end of the year) (W)

100 (W)

Deutsche Bank

60 (IV quarter)


Capital Economics

70 (II quarter) (B)

60 (III quarter) (B)

50 (IV quarter) (B)

50 (B)


B - Brent

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