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OPEC crude production to reach highest level since 2Q19

Oil&Gas Materials 8 June 2022 11:00 (UTC +04:00)
OPEC crude production to reach highest level since 2Q19
Laman Zeynalova
Laman Zeynalova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 8. OPEC crude oil and total liquid fuels production will increase to 34.6 million b/d in 3Q22, the highest since 2Q19, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“Although crude oil prices remain high because of low oil inventories and significant geopolitical uncertainty, we estimate that world production of petroleum and other liquids has returned to within 1 percent of its pre-pandemic level in March 2020. We estimate that U.S. production of crude oil and other liquids averaged 19.9 million b/d in May, which was within 3 percent of January 2020’s record high production of 20.5 million b/d. We also estimate that OPEC crude oil and other liquids production has returned to pre-pandemic levels: May OPEC production was 33.7 million b/d, 1 percent higher than the first quarter of 2020 (1Q20) OPEC production of 33.4 million b/d. Furthermore, OPEC+ announced on June 2 that they will increase crude oil production targets for July and August,” reads the latest EIA report.

Moreover, after seven consecutive quarters of global oil inventory draws from 3Q20 to 1Q22, EIA forecasts that oil stocks in OECD will generally increase but remain below their five-year average levels until 4Q23.

“However, in response to the EU ban on seaborne imports of crude oil from Russia and previous sanctions on Russia, we forecast that Russia’s oil production will decrease from 11.3 million b/d in 1Q22 to 9.3 million b/d in 4Q23. Our forecast reflects the EU’s announcement that that it will impose its crude oil import ban in six months. We assume that about 80 percent of the crude oil subject to the EU import ban will find alternative buyers, mainly in Asia,” the report says.

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