BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 24. Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2023 is expected at 3 percent, the Renaissance Capital investment bank told Trend.
According to the report, Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2022 reached 4.6 percent year-on-year, decelerating from 5.6 percent in 2021.
"Last year, growth was driven by the non-commodity sector, where growth accelerated to 9.1 percent year-on-year from 7.2 percent a year earlier. Meanwhile, the commodity sector declined by 2.7 percent. In 11M22, oil production decreased by 5.7 percent year-on-year, while gas production increased by 7.1 percent," the bank said.
As Renaissance Capital forecasts, in 2023, headline growth will continue to ease - to 3 percent year-on-year.
"The slowdown in the growth of the non-oil and gas sector should be accompanied by a resumption of growth in the oil and gas sector amid some stabilization in oil production and continued growth in gas production," the bank estimates.
Meanwhile, according to Renaissance Capital, inflation rate in Azerbaijan is expected to slow down throughout the year and reach the target 4 percent by the end of it.
"Given that, we expect the start of a monetary policy easing cycle ahead of the Federal Reserve, which may bring the refinancing rate to 7 percent by the end of the year," the report noted.