BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 2. Trend News Agency presents review of current forecasts for GDP growth and inflation reduction in Azerbaijan.
According to the UK Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the annual rate of Azerbaijan’s GDP growth is expected to slow to an average of 2.5 percent over the next five years.
CEBR forecasted that this figure will remain the same between 2028 and 2037, as well.
Besides, CEBR forecasted increase of the nominal GDP from $73 billion in 2023 (against $70 billion in 2022) to $90 billion in 2032 and to $112 billion in 2037.
According to the forecast of the Dutch ING [International Netherlands Group], Azerbaijan’s GDP will grow by 4.8 percent as of 2022.
The ING also forecast ed this figure will increase by three percent next year.
Besides, the company predicted Azerbaijan's GDP growth by 2.5 percent per year from 2024 through 2025.
Thus, according to ING forecasts, from 2022 through 2025, the average annual growth of the Azerbaijani economy will be 3.2 percent.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted the growth of the Azerbaijani economy by 4.5 percent as of 2022.
Meanwhile, the S&P Global Ratings agency forecasted Azerbaijan’s economic growth by four percent as of 2022, which was due to the growth of production in the energy sector, and the rapid recovery of the non-oil sector.
The agency expects that from 2023 through 2025 the average growth will make up 1.5 percent, as new gas capacity compensates only partially for the gradual oil sector decline, and one percent in 2025.
The Renaissance Capital investment bank forecasted Azerbaijan's GDP growth by five percent, and Fitch Ratings - by 4.3 percent, falling to an average of 2.3 percent from 2023 through 2024, which will be constrained by stagnating energy production.
The CEBR forecasted 12.2 percent inflation, and analysts at the Dutch ING company forecasted the average annual rate of inflation at 13.8 percent in Azerbaijan as of 2022.
According to ING's forecast, the average annual inflation rate in Azerbaijan will total 10.5 percent in 2023. For 2024, the company forecasted an average annual inflation rate of five percent, and for 2025 - 4.5 percent.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted that the average annual inflation in Azerbaijan will be 12.2 percent.
The S&P Global Ratings forecasted the average annual inflation in the country as of 2022 to reach 13.5 percent, while Fitch Ratings expected this figure to be 13.7 percent, declining to 9.7 percent in 2023 and to 6.8 percent in 2024.
Besides, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) predicted a slowdown in inflation in the country in 2023.